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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Kevin Holland won · SUB R1
Elo1510
Kevin Holland
Elo1508
Michal Oleksiejczuk editorial illustration

Kevin HollandvsMichal OleksiejczukUFC Prediction Result

UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Saturday, June 1, 2024Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Kevin Holland won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:34

Style matchupKevin Holland: Well-roundedvsMichal Oleksiejczuk: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Kevin Holland wins(56.6%)

Actual result: Kevin Holland wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Michal Oleksiejczuk (53.5%).
  • Kevin Holland has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kevin Holland
Red Corner
VS
Michal Oleksiejczuk
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1510
Elo
1508
33
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'3"
Height
6'0"
205.74 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kevin Holland
oldest →
W
vs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 25
W
SUBvs Vicente Luque · Jun 25
L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jul 25
L
vs Mike Malott · Oct 25
W
DECvs Randy Brown · Apr 26
latest
Michal Oleksiejczuk
oldest →
L
vs Shara Magomedov · Aug 24
W
KOvs Sedriques Dumas · Apr 25
W
KOvs Gerald Meerschaert · Aug 25
W
vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Feb 26
L
SUBvs Abus Magomedov · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kevin HollandMetricMichal Oleksiejczuk
4.24
Strikes / min
5.85
3.21
Strikes absorbed / min
4.50
50%
Strike defense
59%
0.79
TDs / 15 min
1.02
57%
Takedown defense
52%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.03evenly matched on net striking+1.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1562 vs 1531Strikes4.2 vs 5.1Takedowns0.8 vs 1.1Sub Atts0.60 vs 0.00Form-0.3 vs -0.1
Kevin HollandMichal Oleksiejczuk

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Kevin Holland(10 fights)Michal Oleksiejczuk(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +2.0|Blue -2.0
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kevin HollandTargetMichal Oleksiejczuk

By target zone

5
38% acc · 63%
Head
5
33% acc · 63%
3
75% acc · 38%
Body
3
100% acc · 38%
0
Leg
0

By position

8
47% acc · 100%
Distance
6
46% acc · 75%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
2
40% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Kevin Holland rounds
1
even
0
Michal Oleksiejczuk rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:16
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:31Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
8 / 17
Sig Strikes
8 / 18
47%
Sig Str %
44%
8 / 17
Total Strikes
9 / 19
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:16
Ctrl Time
0:31

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Michal Oleksiejczuk8 / 189 / 190 / 00
1Kevin Holland8 / 178 / 170 / 01

Kevin Holland

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach81.0"
Fights27

Michal Oleksiejczuk

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights18