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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Michael Page won · U-DEC R3

Elo1510

Elo1545

Kevin HollandvsMichael PageUFC Prediction Result

UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Saturday, March 9, 2024Miami, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Michael Page won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Kevin Holland wins(66.6%)

Actual result: Michael Page wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Holland at -142 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Page enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Michael Page has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Page (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Kevin Holland

Red Corner

Michael Page

Blue Corner

-142

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1510

Elo

1545

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'3"

Height

6'3"

205.74 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kevin Holland

oldest →

vs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Jun 25

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jul 25

vs Mike Malott · Oct 25

DECvs Randy Brown · Apr 26

latest

Michael PageW3 streak

oldest →

vs Ian Machado Garry · Jun 24

vs Shara Magomedov · Feb 25

vs Jared Cannonier · Aug 25

vs Sam Patterson · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kevin HollandMetricMichael Page

4.24

Strikes / min

2.28

3.21

Strikes absorbed / min

1.51

50%

Strike defense

62%

0.79

TDs / 15 min

0.19

57%

Takedown defense

70%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.03evenly matched on net striking+0.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kevin HollandMichael Page

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kevin Holland(10 fights)Michael Page(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -35.3|Blue +35.3

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -49.2|Blue +49.2

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kevin HollandTargetMichael Page

By target zone

30% acc · 38%

Head

60% acc · 68%

67% acc · 14%

Body

80% acc · 20%

78% acc · 48%

Leg

100% acc · 12%

By position

38% acc · 62%

Distance

66% acc · 93%

80% acc · 14%

Clinch

67% acc · 5%

78% acc · 24%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kevin Holland rounds

even

Michael Page rounds

Round 1Michael Page edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:54

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:49Control

Round 2Kevin Holland edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control2:05

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Michael Page edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control1:23

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:37Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 61

Sig Strikes

41 / 62

42%

Sig Str %

66%

64 / 99

Total Strikes

59 / 81

2 / 5

TDs

0 / 3

41.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:22

Ctrl Time

1:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michael Page	17 / 27	25 / 35	0 / 0	0
1	Kevin Holland	11 / 26	30 / 47	0 / 0	0
2	Michael Page	10 / 15	14 / 20	0 / 0	0
2	Kevin Holland	16 / 27	26 / 37	1 / 2	1
3	Michael Page	14 / 20	20 / 26	0 / 3	0
3	Kevin Holland	2 / 8	8 / 15	1 / 3	0

Kevin Holland

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights27

Michael Page

StanceSwitch

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights5