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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Kevin Holland won · SUB R3
Elo1510
Kevin Holland
Elo1390

Kevin HollandvsJohn PhillipsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2 · Saturday, November 24, 2018Beijing, China

Official fight result

Kevin Holland won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:05

Model Prediction: Kevin Holland wins(83.2%)

Actual result: Kevin Holland wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Holland at -590 American odds

+$17 profit

$117 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Kevin Holland has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors John Phillips (53.5%).
  • Kevin Holland has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kevin Holland
Red Corner
VS
John Phillips
Blue Corner
-590
(86%)
Vegas Odds
+445
(18%)
1510
Elo
1390
33
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'3"
Height
5'11"
205.74 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kevin Holland
oldest →
W
vs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 25
W
SUBvs Vicente Luque · Jun 25
L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jul 25
L
vs Mike Malott · Oct 25
W
DECvs Randy Brown · Apr 26
latest
John PhillipsL2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Charles Byrd · Mar 18
L
vs Jack Marshman · Mar 19
W
KOvs Alen Amedovski · Sep 19
L
SUBvs Khamzat Chimaev · Jul 20
L
vs Junyong Park · Oct 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kevin HollandMetricJohn Phillips
4.24
Strikes / min
1.72
3.21
Strikes absorbed / min
4.03
50%
Strike defense
49%
0.79
TDs / 15 min
0.00
57%
Takedown defense
7%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.03Δ 3.34 — meaningful gap-2.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1485 vs 1482Strikes31.0 vs 0.0Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts1.00 vs 0.00Form-0.9 vs -1.0
Kevin HollandJohn Phillips

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Kevin Holland(10 fights)John Phillips(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +119.7|Blue -119.7
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -140.0|Blue +140.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kevin HollandTargetJohn Phillips

By target zone

74
58% acc · 60%
Head
21
19% acc · 41%
33
79% acc · 27%
Body
16
55% acc · 31%
16
89% acc · 13%
Leg
14
82% acc · 27%

By position

95
62% acc · 77%
Distance
43
33% acc · 84%
11
92% acc · 9%
Clinch
7
44% acc · 14%
17
77% acc · 14%
Ground
1
17% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Kevin Holland rounds
0
even
0
John Phillips rounds
Round 1Kevin Holland edged it
Sig. strikes60
Takedowns1
Control0:03
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Round 2Kevin Holland edged it
Sig. strikes49
Takedowns0
Control0:00
38Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:23Control
Round 3Kevin Holland edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns4
Control3:18
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:23Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
123 / 187
Sig Strikes
51 / 154
68.3%
Sig Str %
25.3%
164 / 236
Total Strikes
53 / 156
5 / 6
TDs
0 / 0
66.7%
TD %
—
2
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
1
3:21
Ctrl Time
0:49

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1John Phillips12 / 4413 / 450 / 00
1Kevin Holland60 / 9060 / 901 / 10
2John Phillips38 / 10239 / 1030 / 00
2Kevin Holland49 / 7950 / 800 / 10
3John Phillips1 / 81 / 80 / 00
3Kevin Holland14 / 1854 / 664 / 42

Kevin Holland

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach81.0"
Fights27

John Phillips

StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights6