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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Kevin Holland won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1510

Elo1516

Kevin HollandvsJoaquin BuckleyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · Saturday, August 8, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Kevin Holland won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:32

Style matchupKevin Holland: Well-roundedvsJoaquin Buckley: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Kevin Holland wins(80.5%)

Actual result: Kevin Holland wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Holland at -455 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kevin Holland has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kevin Holland

Red Corner

Joaquin Buckley

Blue Corner

-455

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+333

(23%)

1510

Elo

1516

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

5'10"

205.74 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kevin Holland

oldest →

vs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Jun 25

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jul 25

vs Mike Malott · Oct 25

DECvs Randy Brown · Apr 26

latest

Joaquin BuckleyL2 streak

oldest →

vs Nursulton Ruziboev · May 24

KOvs Stephen Thompson · Oct 24

KOvs Colby Covington · Dec 24

vs Kamaru Usman · Jun 25

DECvs Sean Brady · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kevin HollandMetricJoaquin Buckley

4.24

Strikes / min

3.62

3.21

Strikes absorbed / min

3.10

50%

Strike defense

58%

0.79

TDs / 15 min

1.43

57%

Takedown defense

70%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.03evenly matched on net striking+0.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kevin HollandJoaquin Buckley

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kevin Holland(10 fights)Joaquin Buckley(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -6.1|Blue +6.1

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -48.6|Blue +48.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kevin HollandTargetJoaquin Buckley

By target zone

52% acc · 57%

Head

10% acc · 15%

56% acc · 23%

Body

53% acc · 78%

100% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

57% acc · 90%

Distance

30% acc · 83%

71% acc · 6%

Clinch

70% acc · 18%

100% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kevin Holland rounds

even

Joaquin Buckley rounds

Round 1Kevin Holland edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:12

Knockdowns1

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Kevin Holland edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Round 3Kevin Holland edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns1

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

79 / 134

Sig Strikes

40 / 120

66.7%

Sig Str %

34%

86 / 141

Total Strikes

41 / 121

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:12

Ctrl Time

0:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Joaquin Buckley	20 / 57	20 / 57	0 / 0
1	Kevin Holland	32 / 54	34 / 56	0 / 0
2	Joaquin Buckley	17 / 55	18 / 56	0 / 2
2	Kevin Holland	41 / 73	46 / 78	0 / 0
3	Joaquin Buckley	3 / 8	3 / 8	0 / 0
3	Kevin Holland	6 / 7	6 / 7	0 / 0

Kevin Holland

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights27

Joaquin Buckley

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights17