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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jack Della Maddalena won · S-DEC R3

Elo1510

Elo1506

Kevin HollandvsJack Della MaddalenaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · Saturday, September 16, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jack Della Maddalena won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKevin Holland: Well-roundedvsJack Della Maddalena: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Jack Della Maddalena wins(81.0%)

Actual result: Jack Della Maddalena wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jack Della Maddalena at -105 American odds

+$95 profit

$195 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jack Della Maddalena has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Jack Della Maddalena (52.9%).
Kevin Holland has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kevin Holland

Red Corner

Jack Della Maddalena

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1510

Elo

1506

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'3"

Height

5'11"

205.74 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kevin Holland

oldest →

vs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Jun 25

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jul 25

vs Mike Malott · Oct 25

DECvs Randy Brown · Apr 26

latest

Jack Della MaddalenaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Bassil Hafez · Jul 23

KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 24

vs Belal Muhammad · May 25

vs Islam Makhachev · Nov 25

KOvs Carlos Prates · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kevin HollandMetricJack Della Maddalena

4.24

Strikes / min

5.32

3.21

Strikes absorbed / min

4.24

50%

Strike defense

61%

0.79

TDs / 15 min

0.34

57%

Takedown defense

64%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.03evenly matched on net striking+1.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kevin HollandJack Della Maddalena

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kevin Holland(10 fights)Jack Della Maddalena(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.0|Blue -4.0

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kevin HollandTargetJack Della Maddalena

By target zone

23% acc · 46%

Head

40% acc · 44%

60% acc · 26%

Body

73% acc · 34%

81% acc · 28%

Leg

88% acc · 22%

By position

119

34% acc · 94%

Distance

54% acc · 90%

80% acc · 6%

Clinch

73% acc · 10%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kevin Holland rounds

even

Jack Della Maddalena rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:00

41Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Kevin Holland edged it

Sig. strikes49

Takedowns0

Control0:00

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Kevin Holland edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

127 / 356

Sig Strikes

105 / 190

35.3%

Sig Str %

54.7%

127 / 356

Total Strikes

105 / 190

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jack Della Maddalena	41 / 69	41 / 69	0 / 0
1	Kevin Holland	40 / 111	40 / 111	0 / 0
2	Jack Della Maddalena	34 / 61	34 / 61	0 / 0
2	Kevin Holland	49 / 127	49 / 127	0 / 2
3	Jack Della Maddalena	30 / 60	30 / 60	0 / 0
3	Kevin Holland	38 / 118	38 / 118	0 / 0

Kevin Holland

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights27

Jack Della Maddalena

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights9