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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Kevin Holland won · KO/TKO

Elo1510

Elo1400

Kevin HollandvsJacare SouzaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno · Saturday, December 12, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Kevin Holland won

KO/TKO

Style matchupKevin Holland: Well-roundedvsJacare Souza: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Kevin Holland wins(86.9%)

Actual result: Kevin Holland wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Holland at -135 American odds

+$74 profit

$174 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jacare Souza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jacare Souza has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Kevin Holland has a 23cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kevin Holland

Red Corner

Jacare Souza

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1510

Elo

1400

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'1"

205.74 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kevin Holland

oldest →

vs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Jun 25

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jul 25

vs Mike Malott · Oct 25

DECvs Randy Brown · Apr 26

latest

Jacare SouzaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Kelvin Gastelum · May 18

KOvs Chris Weidman · Nov 18

vs Jack Hermansson · Apr 19

vs Jan Blachowicz · Nov 19

SUBvs Andre Muniz · May 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kevin HollandMetricJacare Souza

4.24

Strikes / min

2.53

3.21

Strikes absorbed / min

2.83

50%

Strike defense

62%

0.79

TDs / 15 min

2.57

57%

Takedown defense

57%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.03Δ 1.33 — meaningful gap-0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kevin HollandJacare Souza

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kevin Holland(10 fights)Jacare Souza(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +109.5|Blue -109.5

Recent Form

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -175.0|Blue +175.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kevin HollandTargetJacare Souza

By target zone

82% acc · 93%

Head

100% acc · 100%

Body

100% acc · 7%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 7%

Distance

100% acc · 13%

Clinch

86% acc · 80%

Ground

100% acc · 100%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kevin Holland rounds

even

Jacare Souza rounds

Round 1Kevin Holland edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:02

2Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:27Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 18

Sig Strikes

2 / 2

83%

Sig Str %

100%

21 / 24

Total Strikes

2 / 2

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 3

—

TD %

66%

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

1:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jacare Souza	2 / 2	2 / 2	2 / 3	0
1	Kevin Holland	15 / 18	21 / 24	0 / 0	0

Kevin Holland

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights27

Jacare Souza

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights17