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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Kevin Holland won · S-DEC R3

Elo1510

Elo1457

Kevin HollandvsGerald MeerschaertUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje · Saturday, March 30, 2019Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Kevin Holland won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKevin Holland: Well-roundedvsGerald Meerschaert: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Kevin Holland wins(62.6%)

Actual result: Kevin Holland wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Holland at -225 American odds

+$44 profit

$144 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gerald Meerschaert enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Kevin Holland has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Gerald Meerschaert (53.5%).
Kevin Holland has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kevin Holland

Red Corner

Gerald Meerschaert

Blue Corner

-225

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+185

(35%)

1510

Elo

1457

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'1"

205.74 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kevin Holland

oldest →

vs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Jun 25

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jul 25

vs Mike Malott · Oct 25

DECvs Randy Brown · Apr 26

latest

Gerald MeerschaertL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Nov 24

vs Brad Tavares · Apr 25

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 25

SUBvs Kyle Daukaus · Nov 25

DECvs Jacob Malkoun · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kevin HollandMetricGerald Meerschaert

4.24

Strikes / min

2.95

3.21

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

50%

Strike defense

53%

0.79

TDs / 15 min

1.70

57%

Takedown defense

40%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.03Δ 1.52 — meaningful gap-0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kevin HollandGerald Meerschaert

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kevin Holland(10 fights)Gerald Meerschaert(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +53.2|Blue -53.2

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kevin HollandTargetGerald Meerschaert

By target zone

54% acc · 70%

Head

67% acc · 40%

100% acc · 15%

Body

75% acc · 30%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 30%

By position

53% acc · 37%

Distance

100% acc · 40%

0% acc

Clinch

57% acc · 40%

74% acc · 63%

Ground

100% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kevin Holland rounds

even

Gerald Meerschaert rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control1:52

2Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:39Control

Round 2Gerald Meerschaert edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:50

4Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:43Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control1:28

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:51Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 43

Sig Strikes

10 / 13

60.3%

Sig Str %

85.7%

76 / 98

Total Strikes

44 / 56

1 / 2

TDs

6 / 11

50%

TD %

55.3%

Sub Att

Rev

4:10

Ctrl Time

9:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gerald Meerschaert	2 / 2	7 / 8	2 / 3	2
1	Kevin Holland	9 / 14	21 / 27	0 / 0	2
2	Gerald Meerschaert	4 / 4	14 / 16	3 / 6	0
2	Kevin Holland	13 / 18	27 / 35	0 / 0	0
3	Gerald Meerschaert	4 / 7	23 / 32	1 / 2	2
3	Kevin Holland	5 / 11	28 / 36	1 / 2	0

Kevin Holland

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights27

Gerald Meerschaert

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights25