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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Kevin Holland won · S-DEC

Elo1510

Elo1407

Kevin HollandvsDarren StewartUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · Saturday, September 19, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Kevin Holland won

S-DEC

Style matchupKevin Holland: Well-roundedvsDarren Stewart: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Kevin Holland wins(80.3%)

Actual result: Kevin Holland wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Holland at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kevin Holland has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kevin Holland

Red Corner

Darren Stewart

Blue Corner

-265

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1510

Elo

1407

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'0"

205.74 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kevin Holland

oldest →

vs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Jun 25

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jul 25

vs Mike Malott · Oct 25

DECvs Randy Brown · Apr 26

latest

Darren StewartL2 streak

oldest →

vs Bevon Lewis · Jun 19

vs Deron Winn · Oct 19

SUBvs Maki Pitolo · Aug 20

vs Eryk Anders · Jun 21

KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Aug 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kevin HollandMetricDarren Stewart

4.24

Strikes / min

3.05

3.21

Strikes absorbed / min

3.29

50%

Strike defense

48%

0.79

TDs / 15 min

1.75

57%

Takedown defense

67%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.03Δ 1.27 — meaningful gap-0.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kevin HollandDarren Stewart

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kevin Holland(10 fights)Darren Stewart(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +103.2|Blue -103.2

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kevin HollandTargetDarren Stewart

By target zone

53% acc · 73%

Head

35% acc · 46%

69% acc · 12%

Body

86% acc · 11%

73% acc · 15%

Leg

86% acc · 44%

By position

55% acc · 84%

Distance

48% acc · 58%

73% acc · 15%

Clinch

75% acc · 11%

50% acc · 1%

Ground

55% acc · 32%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kevin Holland rounds

even

Darren Stewart rounds

Round 1Kevin Holland edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control2:04

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Round 2Darren Stewart edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:10

28Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:18Control

Round 3Darren Stewart edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control1:21

12Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:31Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

74 / 129

Sig Strikes

57 / 110

58%

Sig Str %

50.7%

163 / 223

Total Strikes

97 / 159

0 / 3

TDs

3 / 8

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

3:35

Ctrl Time

4:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Darren Stewart	17 / 35	35 / 53	0 / 2
1	Kevin Holland	33 / 56	68 / 92	0 / 1
2	Darren Stewart	28 / 40	30 / 43	1 / 2
2	Kevin Holland	31 / 57	49 / 78	0 / 1
3	Darren Stewart	12 / 35	32 / 63	2 / 4
3	Kevin Holland	10 / 16	46 / 53	0 / 1

Kevin Holland

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights27

Darren Stewart

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights12