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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Daniel Rodriguez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1510

Elo1520

Kevin HollandvsDaniel RodriguezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Saturday, July 19, 2025New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

Official fight result

Daniel Rodriguez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKevin Holland: Well-roundedvsDaniel Rodriguez: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Daniel Rodriguez wins(65.3%)

Actual result: Daniel Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Rodriguez (53.5%).
Kevin Holland has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kevin Holland

Red Corner

Daniel Rodriguez

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1510

Elo

1520

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'1"

205.74 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kevin Holland

oldest →

SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Jan 25

vs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Jun 25

vs Mike Malott · Oct 25

DECvs Randy Brown · Apr 26

latest

Daniel RodriguezW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Neil Magny · Nov 22

KOvs Ian Machado Garry · May 23

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jun 24

vs Alex Morono · Oct 24

KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kevin HollandMetricDaniel Rodriguez

4.24

Strikes / min

7.20

3.21

Strikes absorbed / min

5.40

50%

Strike defense

57%

0.79

TDs / 15 min

0.51

57%

Takedown defense

64%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.03evenly matched on net striking+1.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kevin HollandDaniel Rodriguez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kevin Holland(10 fights)Daniel Rodriguez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -10.5|Blue +10.5

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kevin HollandTargetDaniel Rodriguez

By target zone

42% acc · 65%

Head

46% acc · 64%

59% acc · 16%

Body

50% acc · 17%

64% acc · 20%

Leg

88% acc · 19%

By position

44% acc · 73%

Distance

50% acc · 70%

63% acc · 21%

Clinch

86% acc · 8%

56% acc · 6%

Ground

49% acc · 22%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kevin Holland rounds

even

Daniel Rodriguez rounds

Round 1Kevin Holland edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:12

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Daniel Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control1:05

Knockdowns0

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:40Control

2Knockdowns

Round 3Kevin Holland edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:50

Knockdowns1

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:54Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

82 / 173

Sig Strikes

77 / 149

46%

Sig Str %

51.3%

111 / 207

Total Strikes

111 / 189

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 1

16.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:07

Ctrl Time

3:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Daniel Rodriguez	29 / 60	32 / 63	0 / 0
1	Kevin Holland	40 / 83	40 / 83	0 / 1
2	Daniel Rodriguez	31 / 55	44 / 73	0 / 0
2	Kevin Holland	12 / 28	34 / 51	1 / 3
3	Daniel Rodriguez	17 / 34	35 / 53	0 / 1
3	Kevin Holland	30 / 62	37 / 73	0 / 0

Kevin Holland

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights27

Daniel Rodriguez

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14