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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Kevin Holland won · SUB

Elo1510

Elo1431

Kevin HollandvsCharlie OntiverosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva · Saturday, October 31, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Kevin Holland won

SUB

Model Prediction: Kevin Holland wins(79.5%)

Actual result: Kevin Holland wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Holland at -770 American odds

+$13 profit

$113 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kevin Holland has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Kevin Holland has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Charlie Ontiveros (52.9%).
Kevin Holland has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kevin Holland

Red Corner

Charlie Ontiveros

Blue Corner

-770

(89%)

Vegas Odds

+500

(17%)

1510

Elo

1431

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'3"

Height

6'2"

205.74 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kevin Holland

oldest →

vs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Jun 25

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jul 25

vs Mike Malott · Oct 25

DECvs Randy Brown · Apr 26

latest

Charlie OntiverosL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Steve Garcia · Oct 21

KOvs Gabriel Benitez · Aug 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kevin HollandMetricCharlie Ontiveros

4.24

Strikes / min

1.89

3.21

Strikes absorbed / min

5.86

50%

Strike defense

31%

0.79

TDs / 15 min

0.00

57%

Takedown defense

30%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.03Δ 5.00 — meaningful gap-3.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kevin HollandCharlie Ontiveros

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kevin Holland(10 fights)Charlie Ontiveros(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +78.7|Blue -78.7

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -48.8|Blue +48.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kevin HollandTargetCharlie Ontiveros

By target zone

91% acc · 91%

Head

100% acc · 100%

Body

100% acc · 9%

Leg

By position

67% acc · 18%

Distance

100% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 82%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kevin Holland rounds

even

Charlie Ontiveros rounds

Round 1Kevin Holland edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns2

Control2:13

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 12

Sig Strikes

2 / 2

91%

Sig Str %

100%

33 / 34

Total Strikes

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:13

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Charlie Ontiveros	2 / 2	2 / 2	0 / 0	0
1	Kevin Holland	11 / 12	33 / 34	2 / 2	0

Kevin Holland

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights27

Charlie Ontiveros

StanceSwitch

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3