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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Kevin Holland won · U-DEC R3

Elo1510

Elo1434

Kevin HollandvsAlessio Di ChiricoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. The Korean Zombie · Saturday, June 22, 2019Greenville, South Carolina, USA

Official fight result

Kevin Holland won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKevin Holland: Well-roundedvsAlessio Di Chirico: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Kevin Holland wins(77.0%)

Actual result: Kevin Holland wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Holland at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alessio Di Chirico has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Alessio Di Chirico has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Kevin Holland has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kevin Holland

Red Corner

Alessio Di Chirico

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1510

Elo

1434

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'0"

205.74 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kevin Holland

oldest →

vs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Jun 25

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jul 25

vs Mike Malott · Oct 25

DECvs Randy Brown · Apr 26

latest

Alessio Di ChiricoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Makhmud Muradov · Sep 19

vs Zak Cummings · Aug 20

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Jan 21

KOvs Abdul Razak Alhassan · Aug 21

KOvs Roman Kopylov · Sep 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kevin HollandMetricAlessio Di Chirico

4.24

Strikes / min

3.32

3.21

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

50%

Strike defense

61%

0.79

TDs / 15 min

1.46

57%

Takedown defense

83%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.03Δ 1.15 — meaningful gap-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kevin HollandAlessio Di Chirico

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kevin Holland(10 fights)Alessio Di Chirico(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +75.5|Blue -75.5

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -267.0|Blue +267.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kevin HollandTargetAlessio Di Chirico

By target zone

21% acc · 22%

Head

51% acc · 57%

69% acc · 31%

Body

55% acc · 12%

90% acc · 47%

Leg

100% acc · 31%

By position

43% acc · 74%

Distance

55% acc · 69%

88% acc · 26%

Clinch

79% acc · 29%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kevin Holland rounds

even

Alessio Di Chirico rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control1:28

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:51Control

Round 2Alessio Di Chirico edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control1:51

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:40Control

Round 3Kevin Holland edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:11Control

Fight Stats

Totals

58 / 117

Sig Strikes

51 / 84

47.7%

Sig Str %

60%

192 / 253

Total Strikes

62 / 97

0 / 3

TDs

2 / 4

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

3:19

Ctrl Time

1:42

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alessio Di Chirico	18 / 28	25 / 35	1 / 2
1	Kevin Holland	21 / 45	96 / 120	0 / 0
2	Alessio Di Chirico	20 / 29	24 / 35	0 / 1
2	Kevin Holland	10 / 25	57 / 74	0 / 2
3	Alessio Di Chirico	13 / 27	13 / 27	1 / 1
3	Kevin Holland	27 / 47	39 / 59	0 / 1

Kevin Holland

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights27

Alessio Di Chirico

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights11