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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Matt Mitrione won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1490

Elo1356

Kevin FergusonvsMatt MitrioneUFC Prediction Result

UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2 · Saturday, May 8, 2010Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Matt Mitrione won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:24

Style matchupKevin Ferguson: WrestlervsMatt Mitrione: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Kevin Ferguson wins(80.4%)

Actual result: Matt Mitrione wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Ferguson at -103 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Mitrione has 26pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Matt Mitrione has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Matt Mitrione (52.9%).
Matt Mitrione has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kevin Ferguson

Red Corner

Matt Mitrione

Blue Corner

-103

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-107

(52%)

1490

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'2"

Height

6'3"

195.58 cm

Reach

208.28 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kevin FergusonNo prior UFC fights on record.

Matt MitrioneL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Shawn Jordan · Mar 14

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Sep 14

KOvs Gabriel Gonzaga · Dec 14

SUBvs Ben Rothwell · Jun 15

KOvs Travis Browne · Jan 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kevin FergusonMetricMatt Mitrione

2.30

Strikes / min

3.55

3.41

Strikes absorbed / min

2.79

38%

Strike defense

64%

3.10

TDs / 15 min

0.00

36%

Takedown defense

55%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.11Δ 1.87 — meaningful gap+0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kevin FergusonMatt Mitrione

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kevin Ferguson(1 fights)Matt Mitrione(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +134.0|Blue -134.0

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kevin FergusonTargetMatt Mitrione

By target zone

31% acc · 80%

Head

70% acc · 64%

14% acc · 20%

Body

100% acc · 11%

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 25%

By position

20% acc · 80%

Distance

67% acc · 41%

Clinch

67% acc · 9%

100% acc · 20%

Ground

96% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kevin Ferguson rounds

even

Matt Mitrione rounds

Round 1Kevin Ferguson edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns2

Control2:59

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:49Control

Round 2Matt Mitrione edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:33

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:28Control

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 21

Sig Strikes

44 / 56

23.5%

Sig Str %

64%

14 / 30

Total Strikes

63 / 75

2 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:32

Ctrl Time

3:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matt Mitrione	5 / 13	5 / 13	0 / 0	3
1	Kevin Ferguson	3 / 11	12 / 20	2 / 2	0
2	Matt Mitrione	39 / 43	58 / 62	0 / 0	1
2	Kevin Ferguson	2 / 10	2 / 10	0 / 3	0

Kevin Ferguson

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights1

Matt Mitrione

StanceSwitch

Height75.0"

Reach82.0"

Fights13