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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Kevin Casey won · U-DEC R3

Elo1358

Elo1490

Kevin CaseyvsIldemar AlcantaraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · Wednesday, July 15, 2015San Diego, California, USA

Official fight result

Kevin Casey won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Ildemar Alcantara wins(67.1%)

Actual result: Kevin Casey wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ildemar Alcantara at -140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kevin Casey enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Ildemar Alcantara has 54pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Kevin Casey (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Kevin Casey

Red Corner

Ildemar Alcantara

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1358

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'2"

195.58 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kevin CaseyL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Josh Samman · Apr 13

KOvs Rafael Natal · Jan 16

KOvs Sam Alvey · Aug 16

latest

Ildemar Alcantara

oldest →

vs Leandro Silva · Jun 13

vs Igor Araujo · Oct 13

vs Albert Tumenov · Feb 14

vs Kenny Robertson · Jul 14

vs Richardson Moreira · Jan 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kevin CaseyMetricIldemar Alcantara

2.27

Strikes / min

1.93

3.76

Strikes absorbed / min

2.63

46%

Strike defense

50%

0.79

TDs / 15 min

2.00

27%

Takedown defense

81%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.49evenly matched on net striking-0.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kevin CaseyIldemar Alcantara

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kevin Casey(4 fights)Ildemar Alcantara(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -132.6|Blue +132.6

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Layoff

Red +658.0|Blue -658.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kevin CaseyTargetIldemar Alcantara

By target zone

43% acc · 63%

Head

20% acc · 55%

36% acc · 12%

Body

82% acc · 45%

83% acc · 24%

Leg

By position

37% acc · 61%

Distance

27% acc · 85%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 10%

83% acc · 37%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kevin Casey rounds

even

Ildemar Alcantara rounds

Round 1Kevin Casey edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control3:08

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Round 2Kevin Casey edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:34

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Kevin Casey edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control0:16

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 86

Sig Strikes

20 / 66

47.3%

Sig Str %

33.3%

64 / 111

Total Strikes

20 / 67

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

25%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:58

Ctrl Time

0:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ildemar Alcantara	4 / 9	4 / 10	0 / 0
1	Kevin Casey	18 / 28	34 / 46	0 / 1
2	Ildemar Alcantara	7 / 28	7 / 28	0 / 0
2	Kevin Casey	10 / 28	15 / 33	0 / 0
3	Ildemar Alcantara	9 / 29	9 / 29	0 / 0
3	Kevin Casey	13 / 30	15 / 32	1 / 2

Kevin Casey

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights4

Ildemar Alcantara

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights7