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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Zubaira Tukhugov won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1400

Elo1496

Kevin AguilarvsZubaira TukhugovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hooker · Saturday, February 22, 2020Auckland, New Zealand

Official fight result

Zubaira Tukhugov won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:21

Style matchupKevin Aguilar: StrikervsZubaira Tukhugov: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Kevin Aguilar wins(50.2%)

Actual result: Zubaira Tukhugov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Aguilar at -115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kevin Aguilar enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Zubaira Tukhugov has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Zubaira Tukhugov has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Kevin Aguilar has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kevin Aguilar

Red Corner

Zubaira Tukhugov

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1400

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

185.42 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kevin AguilarL3 streak

oldest →

vs Rick Glenn · Nov 18

vs Enrique Barzola · Mar 19

vs Dan Ige · Jun 19

vs Charles Rosa · Jun 20

vs Tucker Lutz · May 21

latest

Zubaira Tukhugov

oldest →

vs Phillipe Nover · Dec 15

vs Renato Moicano · May 16

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Sep 20

vs Ricardo Ramos · Oct 21

vs Elves Brener · Feb 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kevin AguilarMetricZubaira Tukhugov

3.96

Strikes / min

3.17

4.81

Strikes absorbed / min

3.07

52%

Strike defense

63%

0.16

TDs / 15 min

2.13

78%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.85evenly matched on net striking+0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kevin AguilarZubaira Tukhugov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kevin Aguilar(6 fights)Zubaira Tukhugov(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -95.9|Blue +95.9

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -1134.0|Blue +1134.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kevin AguilarTargetZubaira Tukhugov

By target zone

18% acc · 44%

Head

76% acc · 93%

75% acc · 33%

Body

100% acc · 7%

100% acc · 22%

Leg

By position

32% acc · 100%

Distance

68% acc · 54%

Clinch

Ground

93% acc · 46%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kevin Aguilar rounds

even

Zubaira Tukhugov rounds

Round 1Zubaira Tukhugov edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

2Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 28

Sig Strikes

28 / 36

32%

Sig Str %

77%

9 / 28

Total Strikes

28 / 37

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Zubaira Tukhugov	28 / 36	28 / 37	0 / 0	0
1	Kevin Aguilar	9 / 28	9 / 28	0 / 0	0

Kevin Aguilar

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6

Zubaira Tukhugov

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights8