← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Tucker Lutz won · U-DEC

Elo1400

Elo1465

Kevin AguilarvsTucker LutzUFC Prediction Result

UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · Saturday, May 15, 2021Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Tucker Lutz won

U-DEC

Style matchupKevin Aguilar: StrikervsTucker Lutz: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Tucker Lutz wins(82.3%)

Actual result: Tucker Lutz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tucker Lutz at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kevin Aguilar enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tucker Lutz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Kevin Aguilar

Red Corner

Tucker Lutz

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1400

Elo

1465

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kevin AguilarL3 streak

oldest →

vs Rick Glenn · Nov 18

vs Enrique Barzola · Mar 19

vs Dan Ige · Jun 19

KOvs Zubaira Tukhugov · Feb 20

vs Charles Rosa · Jun 20

latest

Tucker LutzL3 streak

oldest →

vs Pat Sabatini · Nov 21

SUBvs Daniel Pineda · Mar 23

vs Melsik Baghdasaryan · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kevin AguilarMetricTucker Lutz

3.96

Strikes / min

3.74

4.81

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

52%

Strike defense

44%

0.16

TDs / 15 min

1.99

78%

Takedown defense

69%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.85Δ 1.34 — meaningful gap+0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kevin AguilarTucker Lutz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kevin Aguilar(6 fights)Tucker Lutz(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -64.4|Blue +64.4

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -48.6|Blue +48.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kevin AguilarTargetTucker Lutz

By target zone

46% acc · 56%

Head

45% acc · 60%

79% acc · 38%

Body

81% acc · 21%

71% acc · 6%

Leg

95% acc · 19%

By position

53% acc · 89%

Distance

54% acc · 92%

100% acc · 11%

Clinch

83% acc · 5%

Ground

75% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kevin Aguilar rounds

even

Tucker Lutz rounds

Round 1Tucker Lutz edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

33Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:19Control

Round 2Tucker Lutz edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:46

34Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:31Control

Round 3Tucker Lutz edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:06

32Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

81 / 144

Sig Strikes

99 / 177

56%

Sig Str %

56%

132 / 196

Total Strikes

114 / 192

0 / 2

TDs

3 / 4

TD %

83.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:52

Ctrl Time

3:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tucker Lutz	33 / 53	43 / 63	1 / 1
1	Kevin Aguilar	25 / 41	50 / 67	0 / 0
2	Tucker Lutz	34 / 59	35 / 60	1 / 1
2	Kevin Aguilar	28 / 50	37 / 59	0 / 1
3	Tucker Lutz	32 / 65	36 / 69	1 / 2
3	Kevin Aguilar	28 / 53	45 / 70	0 / 1

Kevin Aguilar

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6

Tucker Lutz

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4