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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Raquel Pennington won · S-DEC R3

Elo1515

Elo1504

Ketlen VieiravsRaquel PenningtonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Saturday, January 14, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Raquel Pennington won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKetlen Vieira: Well-roundedvsRaquel Pennington: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Raquel Pennington wins(67.4%)

Actual result: Raquel Pennington wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Raquel Pennington at +130 American odds

+$130 profit

$230 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Raquel Pennington has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ketlen Vieira has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ketlen Vieira

Red Corner

Raquel Pennington

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1515

Elo

1504

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

172.72 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ketlen Vieira

oldest →

vs Pannie Kianzad · Jul 23

vs Kayla Harrison · Oct 24

vs Macy Chiasson · May 25

vs Norma Dumont · Nov 25

DECvs Jacqueline Cavalcanti · May 26

latest

Raquel Pennington

oldest →

vs Pannie Kianzad · Sep 21

SUBvs Macy Chiasson · Dec 21

vs Aspen Ladd · Apr 22

vs Mayra Bueno Silva · Jan 24

vs Julianna Pena · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ketlen VieiraMetricRaquel Pennington

2.76

Strikes / min

4.10

3.75

Strikes absorbed / min

3.32

50%

Strike defense

61%

1.33

TDs / 15 min

0.83

90%

Takedown defense

62%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.99Δ 1.77 — meaningful gap+0.78

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ketlen VieiraRaquel Pennington

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ketlen Vieira(10 fights)Raquel Pennington(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +10.1|Blue -10.1

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ketlen VieiraTargetRaquel Pennington

By target zone

34% acc · 64%

Head

33% acc · 46%

50% acc · 8%

Body

91% acc · 40%

90% acc · 28%

Leg

92% acc · 15%

By position

39% acc · 88%

Distance

44% acc · 73%

89% acc · 13%

Clinch

88% acc · 27%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ketlen Vieira rounds

even

Raquel Pennington rounds

Round 1Raquel Pennington edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:13

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Raquel Pennington edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control1:28

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:37Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control3:04

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:41Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 152

Sig Strikes

81 / 159

46.3%

Sig Str %

51.7%

138 / 230

Total Strikes

104 / 184

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:45

Ctrl Time

1:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Raquel Pennington	27 / 58	27 / 58	0 / 0
1	Ketlen Vieira	23 / 71	29 / 78	0 / 0
2	Raquel Pennington	29 / 61	32 / 64	0 / 1
2	Ketlen Vieira	21 / 51	42 / 72	0 / 0
3	Raquel Pennington	25 / 40	45 / 62	0 / 1
3	Ketlen Vieira	20 / 30	67 / 80	0 / 0

Ketlen Vieira

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights14

Raquel Pennington

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights19