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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Kayla Harrison won · U-DEC R3

Elo1515

Elo1527

Ketlen VieiravsKayla HarrisonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Saturday, October 5, 2024Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Kayla Harrison won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKetlen Vieira: Well-roundedvsKayla Harrison: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Kayla Harrison wins(72.6%)

Actual result: Kayla Harrison wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kayla Harrison at -1100 American odds

+$9 profit

$109 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kayla Harrison has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Kayla Harrison (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Ketlen Vieira

Red Corner

Kayla Harrison

Blue Corner

+700

(13%)

Vegas Odds

-1100

(92%)

1515

Elo

1527

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'8"

172.72 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ketlen Vieira

oldest →

vs Raquel Pennington · Jan 23

vs Pannie Kianzad · Jul 23

vs Macy Chiasson · May 25

vs Norma Dumont · Nov 25

DECvs Jacqueline Cavalcanti · May 26

latest

Kayla HarrisonW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Holly Holm · Apr 24

SUBvs Julianna Pena · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ketlen VieiraMetricKayla Harrison

2.76

Strikes / min

4.29

3.75

Strikes absorbed / min

1.10

50%

Strike defense

66%

1.33

TDs / 15 min

2.84

90%

Takedown defense

100%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.99Δ 4.18 — meaningful gap+3.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ketlen VieiraKayla Harrison

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ketlen Vieira(10 fights)Kayla Harrison(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -12.7|Blue +12.7

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red +266.0|Blue -266.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ketlen VieiraTargetKayla Harrison

By target zone

32% acc · 50%

Head

49% acc · 62%

27% acc · 17%

Body

88% acc · 25%

100% acc · 33%

Leg

78% acc · 13%

By position

36% acc · 88%

Distance

38% acc · 35%

100% acc · 13%

Clinch

88% acc · 27%

Ground

78% acc · 38%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ketlen Vieira rounds

even

Kayla Harrison rounds

Round 1Kayla Harrison edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:46Control

Round 2Kayla Harrison edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:02Control

Round 3Kayla Harrison edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:06Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 61

Sig Strikes

55 / 94

37.3%

Sig Str %

58.3%

67 / 108

Total Strikes

98 / 149

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 8

—

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

7:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kayla Harrison	17 / 27	37 / 53	1 / 2
1	Ketlen Vieira	5 / 16	27 / 38	0 / 0
2	Kayla Harrison	15 / 35	27 / 50	0 / 2
2	Ketlen Vieira	14 / 32	29 / 49	0 / 0
3	Kayla Harrison	23 / 32	34 / 46	1 / 4
3	Ketlen Vieira	5 / 13	11 / 21	0 / 0

Ketlen Vieira

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights14

Kayla Harrison

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights3