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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Kenny Robertson won · SUB R1
Elo1358
Kenny Robertson
Elo1352

Kenny RobertsonvsBrock JardineUFC Prediction Result

UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche · Saturday, February 23, 2013Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Kenny Robertson won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:57

Model Prediction: Brock Jardine wins(50.1%)

Actual result: Kenny Robertson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brock Jardine at -145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Kenny Robertson threatens submissions; Brock Jardine has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Kenny Robertson has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Kenny Robertson
Red Corner
VS
Brock Jardine
Blue Corner
+135
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-145
(59%)
1358
Elo
1352
42
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'11"
187.96 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kenny RobertsonL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Thiago Perpetuo · Mar 14
W
vs Ildemar Alcantara · Jul 14
W
KOvs Sultan Aliev · Jan 15
L
vs Ben Saunders · Jul 15
L
vs Roan Carneiro · Sep 16
latest
Brock Jardine
oldest →
L
vs Rick Story · Jun 12
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kenny RobertsonMetricBrock Jardine
3.72
Strikes / min
1.06
3.02
Strikes absorbed / min
3.34
52%
Strike defense
56%
1.37
TDs / 15 min
0.00
57%
Takedown defense
14%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.70Δ 2.98 — meaningful gap-2.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1466 vs 1483Strikes20.5 vs 18.0Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-1.0 vs -1.0
Kenny RobertsonBrock Jardine

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Kenny Robertson(9 fights)Brock Jardine(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +6.0|Blue -6.0
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -19.0|Blue +19.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kenny RobertsonTargetBrock Jardine

By target zone

8
67% acc · 89%
Head
0
0% acc
0
Body
0
1
100% acc · 11%
Leg
1
100% acc · 100%

By position

1
33% acc · 11%
Distance
1
33% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
8
80% acc · 89%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Kenny Robertson rounds
0
even
0
Brock Jardine rounds
Round 1Kenny Robertson edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns1
Control2:36
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
9 / 13
Sig Strikes
1 / 3
69%
Sig Str %
33%
27 / 32
Total Strikes
1 / 3
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
2
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
2:36
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Brock Jardine1 / 31 / 30 / 01
1Kenny Robertson9 / 1327 / 321 / 12

Kenny Robertson

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights9

Brock Jardine

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach—
Fights2