Lightweight

3 Rounds

Gray Maynard won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1491

Kenny FlorianvsGray MaynardUFC Prediction Result

UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2 · Saturday, August 28, 2010Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Gray Maynard won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKenny Florian: WrestlervsGray Maynard: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Kenny Florian wins(66.0%)

Actual result: Gray Maynard wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kenny Florian at -140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gray Maynard has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Kenny Florian (53.5%).
Kenny Florian has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kenny Florian

Red Corner

Gray Maynard

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1490

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

187.96 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kenny Florian

oldest →

SUBvs Takanori Gomi · Mar 10

vs Diego Nunes · Jun 11

vs Jose Aldo · Oct 11

latest

Gray Maynard

oldest →

vs Alexander Yakovlev · Apr 15

vs Fernando Bruno · Jul 16

vs Ryan Hall · Dec 16

vs Teruto Ishihara · Jul 17

KOvs Nik Lentz · Oct 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kenny FlorianMetricGray Maynard

2.41

Strikes / min

1.92

1.85

Strikes absorbed / min

2.64

63%

Strike defense

66%

2.22

TDs / 15 min

2.91

60%

Takedown defense

81%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.56Δ 1.28 — meaningful gap-0.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kenny FlorianGray Maynard

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kenny Florian(4 fights)Gray Maynard(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -48.4|Blue +48.4

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kenny FlorianTargetGray Maynard

By target zone

14% acc · 50%

Head

24% acc · 80%

44% acc · 29%

Body

75% acc · 20%

75% acc · 21%

Leg

By position

18% acc · 79%

Distance

13% acc · 27%

100% acc · 14%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 7%

Ground

55% acc · 73%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kenny Florian rounds

even

Gray Maynard rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:18Control

Round 2Gray Maynard edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:20Control

Round 3Gray Maynard edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 63

Sig Strikes

15 / 53

21%

Sig Str %

27%

33 / 85

Total Strikes

47 / 86

0 / 0

TDs

5 / 7

—

TD %

77.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

6:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gray Maynard	2 / 15	8 / 21	1 / 3
1	Kenny Florian	7 / 26	14 / 33	0 / 0
2	Gray Maynard	4 / 19	16 / 31	2 / 2
2	Kenny Florian	2 / 18	5 / 21	0 / 0
3	Gray Maynard	9 / 19	23 / 34	2 / 2
3	Kenny Florian	5 / 19	14 / 31	0 / 0

Kenny Florian

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4

Gray Maynard

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11