Featherweight

3 Rounds

Kenny Florian won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Kenny FlorianvsDiego NunesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin · Saturday, June 11, 2011Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Kenny Florian won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKenny Florian: WrestlervsDiego Nunes: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Kenny Florian wins(54.1%)

Actual result: Kenny Florian wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kenny Florian at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Kenny Florian (53.5%).
Kenny Florian has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kenny Florian

Red Corner

Diego Nunes

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'6"

187.96 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kenny FlorianL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Takanori Gomi · Mar 10

vs Gray Maynard · Aug 10

vs Jose Aldo · Oct 11

latest

Diego Nunes

oldest →

vs Mike Brown · Jan 11

vs Manvel Gamburyan · Dec 11

vs Dennis Siver · Apr 12

vs Bart Palaszewski · Oct 12

vs Nik Lentz · Jan 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kenny FlorianMetricDiego Nunes

2.41

Strikes / min

2.72

1.85

Strikes absorbed / min

2.59

63%

Strike defense

58%

2.22

TDs / 15 min

1.18

60%

Takedown defense

65%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.56evenly matched on net striking+0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kenny FlorianDiego Nunes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kenny Florian(4 fights)Diego Nunes(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +126.0|Blue -126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kenny FlorianTargetDiego Nunes

By target zone

31% acc · 67%

Head

19% acc · 45%

64% acc · 21%

Body

67% acc · 32%

71% acc · 12%

Leg

47% acc · 23%

By position

26% acc · 48%

Distance

23% acc · 61%

46% acc · 14%

Clinch

80% acc · 26%

76% acc · 38%

Ground

40% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kenny Florian rounds

even

Diego Nunes rounds

Round 1Diego Nunes edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns2

Control0:43

Knockdowns0

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:47Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Kenny Florian edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control2:18

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:05Control

Round 3Kenny Florian edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control1:52

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 111

Sig Strikes

31 / 104

36.7%

Sig Str %

29%

112 / 185

Total Strikes

34 / 108

4 / 9

TDs

2 / 2

58.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

4:53

Ctrl Time

2:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Diego Nunes	15 / 39	15 / 39	1 / 1	0
1	Kenny Florian	11 / 37	22 / 49	2 / 4	0
2	Diego Nunes	6 / 25	9 / 29	1 / 1	0
2	Kenny Florian	9 / 24	39 / 55	1 / 4	1
3	Diego Nunes	10 / 40	10 / 40	0 / 0	0
3	Kenny Florian	22 / 50	51 / 81	1 / 1	0

Kenny Florian

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4

Diego Nunes

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights6