Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Ken Stone won · S-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1353

Ken StonevsDustin PagueUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · Friday, June 22, 2012Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Ken Stone won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKen Stone: Well-roundedvsDustin Pague: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Ken Stone wins(58.0%)

Actual result: Ken Stone wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ken Stone at +140 American odds

+$140 profit

$240 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dustin Pague enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Ken Stone

Red Corner

Dustin Pague

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1490

Elo

1353

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ken Stone

oldest →

KOvs Scott Jorgensen · Jun 11

SUBvs Donny Walker · Sep 11

KOvs Erik Perez · Aug 12

latest

Dustin PagueL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs John Albert · Dec 11

SUBvs Jared Papazian · Jun 12

vs Chico Camus · Aug 12

vs Yves Jabouin · Jun 13

KOvs Kyoji Horiguchi · Oct 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ken StoneMetricDustin Pague

3.85

Strikes / min

1.65

2.90

Strikes absorbed / min

2.96

48%

Strike defense

41%

1.24

TDs / 15 min

1.03

60%

Takedown defense

55%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

2.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.95Δ 2.26 — meaningful gap-1.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ken StoneDustin Pague

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ken Stone(4 fights)Dustin Pague(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +137.6|Blue -137.6

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +265.0|Blue -265.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ken StoneTargetDustin Pague

By target zone

36% acc · 49%

Head

24% acc · 34%

100% acc · 8%

Body

82% acc · 22%

96% acc · 43%

Leg

90% acc · 44%

By position

45% acc · 70%

Distance

43% acc · 90%

100% acc · 30%

Clinch

100% acc · 10%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ken Stone rounds

even

Dustin Pague rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Ken Stone edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control1:39

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Ken Stone edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control3:28

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 119

Sig Strikes

41 / 90

55%

Sig Str %

43.3%

88 / 149

Total Strikes

47 / 96

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 3

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:07

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dustin Pague	21 / 41	21 / 41	0 / 0
1	Ken Stone	20 / 47	20 / 47	0 / 0
2	Dustin Pague	13 / 31	14 / 32	0 / 1
2	Ken Stone	26 / 47	31 / 52	0 / 2
3	Dustin Pague	7 / 18	12 / 23	0 / 2
3	Ken Stone	17 / 25	37 / 50	0 / 1

Ken Stone

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4

Dustin Pague

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6