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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Ken Stone won · SUB R1
Elo1490
Elo1351

Ken StonevsDonny WalkerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · Saturday, September 17, 2011New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

Official fight result

Ken Stone won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:40

Model Prediction: Donny Walker wins(74.6%)

Actual result: Ken Stone wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Donny Walker at +155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Ken Stone threatens submissions; Donny Walker has lost 50% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Ken Stone
Red Corner
VS
Donny Walker
Blue Corner
-165
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+155
(39%)
1490
Elo
1351
43
Age
46
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'9"
180.34 cm
Reach
180 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ken Stone
oldest →
L
KOvs Scott Jorgensen · Jun 11
W
vs Dustin Pague · Jun 12
L
KOvs Erik Perez · Aug 12
latest
Donny Walker
oldest →
L
vs Jeff Hougland · Jul 11
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ken StoneMetricDonny Walker
3.85
Strikes / min
1.81
2.90
Strikes absorbed / min
3.85
48%
Strike defense
46%
1.24
TDs / 15 min
0.00
60%
Takedown defense
57%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
1.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.95Δ 2.99 — meaningful gap-2.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1484 vs 1484Strikes18.0 vs 31.0Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 2.00Form-1.0 vs -1.0
Ken StoneDonny Walker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Ken Stone(4 fights)Donny Walker(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +139.0|Blue -139.0
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +28.0|Blue -28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ken StoneTargetDonny Walker

By target zone

1
17% acc · 14%
Head
1
33% acc · 100%
4
100% acc · 57%
Body
0
2
100% acc · 29%
Leg
0

By position

3
38% acc · 43%
Distance
1
33% acc · 100%
3
100% acc · 43%
Clinch
0
1
100% acc · 14%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Ken Stone rounds
0
even
0
Donny Walker rounds
Round 1Ken Stone edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns2
Control2:10
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
7 / 12
Sig Strikes
1 / 3
58%
Sig Str %
33%
18 / 23
Total Strikes
4 / 6
2 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:10
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Donny Walker1 / 34 / 60 / 00
1Ken Stone7 / 1218 / 232 / 21

Ken Stone

StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights4

Donny Walker

Stance—
Height69.0"
Reach—
Fights2