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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Vicente Luque won · Submission R1
Elo1492
Kelvin Gastelum
Elo1504
Vicente Luque editorial illustration

Kelvin GastelumvsVicente LuqueUFC Prediction Result

UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · Saturday, April 11, 2026Miami, USA

Official fight result

Vicente Luque won

Submission · Round 1 · 4:08

Style matchupKelvin Gastelum: Well-roundedvsVicente Luque: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Vicente Luque wins(59.5%)

Actual result: Vicente Luque wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Vicente Luque threatens submissions; Kelvin Gastelum has lost 36% of fights by sub.
  • Vicente Luque has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kelvin Gastelum
Red Corner
VS
Vicente Luque
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1492
Elo
1504
34
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'11"
180.34 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kelvin Gastelum
oldest →
W
vs Chris Curtis · Apr 23
L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23
W
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24
L
vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25
W
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25
latest
Vicente LuqueL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Aug 23
L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Mar 24
W
SUBvs Themba Gorimbo · Dec 24
L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 25
L
vs Joel Alvarez · Oct 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kelvin GastelumMetricVicente Luque
3.65
Strikes / min
4.80
3.52
Strikes absorbed / min
5.24
57%
Strike defense
51%
1.04
TDs / 15 min
0.89
60%
Takedown defense
59%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.13evenly matched on net striking-0.44
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)Vicente Luque(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -12.8|Blue +12.8
Recent Form
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +28.0|Blue -28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Kelvin Gastelum

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights24

Vicente Luque

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights23