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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Kelvin Gastelum won · S-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1491

Kelvin GastelumvsRick StoryUFC Prediction Result

UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler · Saturday, March 15, 2014Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Kelvin Gastelum won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKelvin Gastelum: Well-roundedvsRick Story: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Rick Story wins(50.1%)

Actual result: Kelvin Gastelum wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rick Story at +160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Kelvin Gastelum

Red Corner

Rick Story

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1492

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kelvin Gastelum

oldest →

SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24

vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25

vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Apr 26

latest

Rick Story

oldest →

vs Brian Ebersole · Nov 13

SUBvs Leonardo Mafra · Jul 14

vs Gunnar Nelson · Oct 14

vs Tarec Saffiedine · May 16

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kelvin GastelumMetricRick Story

3.65

Strikes / min

3.80

3.52

Strikes absorbed / min

2.17

57%

Strike defense

62%

1.04

TDs / 15 min

2.53

60%

Takedown defense

63%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.13Δ 1.50 — meaningful gap+1.63

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kelvin GastelumRick Story

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)Rick Story(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +80.0|Blue -80.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kelvin GastelumTargetRick Story

By target zone

38% acc · 76%

Head

20% acc · 58%

50% acc · 5%

Body

52% acc · 27%

100% acc · 19%

Leg

100% acc · 16%

By position

42% acc · 85%

Distance

26% acc · 87%

44% acc · 12%

Clinch

42% acc · 11%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

33% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kelvin Gastelum rounds

even

Rick Story rounds

Round 1Kelvin Gastelum edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:52

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Rick Story edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Rick Story edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control0:38

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:09Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 137

Sig Strikes

45 / 163

42.7%

Sig Str %

28%

62 / 142

Total Strikes

51 / 170

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:30

Ctrl Time

2:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rick Story	9 / 42	9 / 42	0 / 0
1	Kelvin Gastelum	19 / 35	20 / 37	0 / 0
2	Rick Story	22 / 84	22 / 84	0 / 0
2	Kelvin Gastelum	28 / 63	28 / 63	0 / 0
3	Rick Story	14 / 37	20 / 44	0 / 1
3	Kelvin Gastelum	12 / 39	14 / 42	1 / 2

Kelvin Gastelum

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24

Rick Story

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights16