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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Kelvin Gastelum won · Decision R3
Elo1492
Kelvin Gastelum
Elo1360

Kelvin GastelumvsNico MusokeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens · Saturday, June 28, 2014San Antonio, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Kelvin Gastelum won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Kelvin Gastelum wins(64.9%)

Actual result: Kelvin Gastelum wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kelvin Gastelum at -275 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Kelvin Gastelum (53.5%).
  • Nico Musoke has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kelvin Gastelum
Red Corner
VS
Nico Musoke
Blue Corner
-275
(73%)
Vegas Odds
+250
(29%)
1492
Elo
1360
34
Age
28
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
6'0"
180.34 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kelvin Gastelum
oldest →
L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23
W
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24
L
vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25
W
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25
L
SUBvs Vicente Luque · Apr 26
latest
Nico MusokeL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Alessio Sakara · Oct 13
W
DECvs Viscardi Andrade · Feb 14
W
DECvs Alexander Yakovlev · Oct 14
L
DECvs Albert Tumenov · Jan 15
L
KOvs Bojan Velickovic · May 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kelvin GastelumMetricNico Musoke
3.65
Strikes / min
—
3.52
Strikes absorbed / min
—
57%
Strike defense
—
1.04
TDs / 15 min
—
60%
Takedown defense
—
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1556 vs 1535Strikes34.7 vs 28.5Takedowns1.7 vs 1.5Sub Atts0.33 vs 0.50Form1.0 vs 1.0
Kelvin GastelumNico Musoke

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)Nico Musoke(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +131.1|Blue -131.1
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red -28.0|Blue +28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Kelvin Gastelum

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights24

Nico Musoke

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights3