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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Kelvin Gastelum won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1492

Elo1363

Kelvin GastelumvsNate MarquardtUFC Prediction Result

UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · Saturday, June 13, 2015Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Kelvin Gastelum won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 5:00

Style matchupKelvin Gastelum: Well-roundedvsNate Marquardt: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Kelvin Gastelum wins(58.6%)

Actual result: Kelvin Gastelum wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kelvin Gastelum at -500 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nate Marquardt enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Kelvin Gastelum (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Kelvin Gastelum

Red Corner

Nate Marquardt

Blue Corner

-500

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+400

(20%)

1492

Elo

1363

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kelvin Gastelum

oldest →

SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24

vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25

vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Apr 26

latest

Nate MarquardtL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Thiago Santos · May 16

KOvs Tamdan McCrory · Oct 16

vs Sam Alvey · Jan 17

vs Vitor Belfort · Jun 17

vs Cezar Ferreira · Nov 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kelvin GastelumMetricNate Marquardt

3.65

Strikes / min

2.71

3.52

Strikes absorbed / min

2.32

57%

Strike defense

55%

1.04

TDs / 15 min

1.87

60%

Takedown defense

70%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.13evenly matched on net striking+0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kelvin GastelumNate Marquardt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)Nate Marquardt(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +129.0|Blue -129.0

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kelvin GastelumTargetNate Marquardt

By target zone

47% acc · 69%

Head

22% acc · 44%

71% acc · 20%

Body

83% acc · 56%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

By position

47% acc · 66%

Distance

37% acc · 89%

64% acc · 12%

Clinch

50% acc · 11%

81% acc · 22%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kelvin Gastelum rounds

even

Nate Marquardt rounds

Round 1Kelvin Gastelum edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control0:51

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 2Kelvin Gastelum edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control2:48

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 110

Sig Strikes

18 / 49

53.5%

Sig Str %

36.5%

126 / 188

Total Strikes

24 / 57

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 2

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:39

Ctrl Time

0:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nate Marquardt	12 / 33	17 / 39	0 / 2
1	Kelvin Gastelum	27 / 58	46 / 81	1 / 1
2	Nate Marquardt	6 / 16	7 / 18	0 / 0
2	Kelvin Gastelum	32 / 52	80 / 107	0 / 1

Kelvin Gastelum

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24

Nate Marquardt

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14