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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Joe Pyfer won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1553

Kelvin GastelumvsJoe PyferUFC Prediction Result

UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Saturday, June 7, 2025Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Joe Pyfer won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKelvin Gastelum: Well-roundedvsJoe Pyfer: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Joe Pyfer wins(65.8%)

Actual result: Joe Pyfer wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joe Pyfer at -390 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joe Pyfer enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Kelvin Gastelum (53.5%).
Joe Pyfer has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kelvin Gastelum

Red Corner

Joe Pyfer

Blue Corner

+310

(24%)

Vegas Odds

-390

(80%)

1492

Elo

1553

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'2"

180.34 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kelvin Gastelum

oldest →

vs Chris Curtis · Apr 23

SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24

vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Apr 26

latest

Joe PyferW3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Abdul Razak Alhassan · Oct 23

vs Jack Hermansson · Feb 24

KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · Jun 24

SUBvs Abus Magomedov · Oct 25

KOvs Israel Adesanya · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kelvin GastelumMetricJoe Pyfer

3.65

Strikes / min

3.52

Strikes absorbed / min

3.22

57%

Strike defense

52%

1.04

TDs / 15 min

1.45

60%

Takedown defense

62%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.13evenly matched on net striking+0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kelvin GastelumJoe Pyfer

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)Joe Pyfer(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -61.6|Blue +61.6

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kelvin GastelumTargetJoe Pyfer

By target zone

19% acc · 39%

Head

44% acc · 77%

65% acc · 33%

Body

86% acc · 21%

69% acc · 27%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

33% acc · 97%

Distance

49% acc · 89%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

Ground

43% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kelvin Gastelum rounds

even

Joe Pyfer rounds

Round 1Joe Pyfer edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

2Knockdowns

Round 2Joe Pyfer edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Joe Pyfer edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:27

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 99

Sig Strikes

57 / 114

36.7%

Sig Str %

49.7%

34 / 100

Total Strikes

58 / 115

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 2

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:27

Ctrl Time

0:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Joe Pyfer	21 / 39	22 / 40	0 / 0
1	Kelvin Gastelum	8 / 20	8 / 20	0 / 0
2	Joe Pyfer	17 / 40	17 / 40	0 / 0
2	Kelvin Gastelum	11 / 50	11 / 50	0 / 0
3	Joe Pyfer	19 / 35	19 / 35	1 / 2
3	Kelvin Gastelum	14 / 29	15 / 30	0 / 1

Kelvin Gastelum

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24

Joe Pyfer

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8