Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Middleweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Israel Adesanya won · U-DEC R5
Elo1492
Kelvin Gastelum
Elo1464
Israel Adesanya

Kelvin GastelumvsIsrael AdesanyaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 · Saturday, April 13, 2019Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Israel Adesanya won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupKelvin Gastelum: Well-roundedvsIsrael Adesanya: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Israel Adesanya wins(66.5%)

Actual result: Israel Adesanya wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Israel Adesanya at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Israel Adesanya enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Israel Adesanya has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Israel Adesanya (54.1%).
  • Israel Adesanya has a 23cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kelvin Gastelum
Red Corner
VS
Israel Adesanya
Blue Corner
+150
(40%)
Vegas Odds
-170
(63%)
1492
Elo
1464
34
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
5'9"
Height
6'4"
180.34 cm
Reach
203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kelvin Gastelum
oldest →
L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23
W
vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24
L
vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25
W
vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25
L
SUBvs Vicente Luque · Apr 26
latest
Israel AdesanyaL4 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Alex Pereira · Apr 23
L
vs Sean Strickland · Sep 23
L
SUBvs Dricus Du Plessis · Aug 24
L
KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Feb 25
L
KOvs Joe Pyfer · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kelvin GastelumMetricIsrael Adesanya
3.65
Strikes / min
4.03
3.52
Strikes absorbed / min
3.22
57%
Strike defense
55%
1.04
TDs / 15 min
0.05
60%
Takedown defense
76%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.13evenly matched on net striking+0.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1622 vs 1596Strikes45.5 vs 61.2Takedowns0.6 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.14 vs 0.20Form0.7 vs 1.0
Kelvin GastelumIsrael Adesanya

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14501468148515031520← oldermost recent →
Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)Israel Adesanya(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +27.1|Blue -27.1
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red +273.0|Blue -273.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kelvin GastelumTargetIsrael Adesanya

By target zone

68
36% acc · 75%
Head
70
38% acc · 64%
12
75% acc · 13%
Body
16
70% acc · 15%
11
85% acc · 12%
Leg
23
82% acc · 21%

By position

91
42% acc · 100%
Distance
100
44% acc · 92%
0
0% acc
Clinch
1
100% acc · 1%
0
Ground
8
73% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Kelvin Gastelum rounds
1
even
2
Israel Adesanya rounds
Round 1Kelvin Gastelum edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Israel Adesanya edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
29Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:07Control
1Knockdowns
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns1
Control0:09
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Kelvin Gastelum edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns0
Control0:28
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Israel Adesanya edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:44
Knockdowns0
37Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:35Control
3Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
4
91 / 220
Sig Strikes
109 / 237
39.8%
Sig Str %
43.4%
92 / 222
Total Strikes
119 / 247
1 / 9
TDs
0 / 0
12.5%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
2
1
Rev
0
1:21
Ctrl Time
0:42

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Israel Adesanya10 / 3210 / 320 / 00
1Kelvin Gastelum12 / 3312 / 330 / 00
2Israel Adesanya29 / 6230 / 630 / 00
2Kelvin Gastelum20 / 4420 / 440 / 20
3Israel Adesanya16 / 4117 / 420 / 00
3Kelvin Gastelum12 / 3512 / 351 / 20
4Kelvin Gastelum32 / 6933 / 710 / 20
4Israel Adesanya17 / 4519 / 470 / 00
5Israel Adesanya37 / 5743 / 630 / 02
5Kelvin Gastelum15 / 3915 / 390 / 30

Kelvin Gastelum

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights24

Israel Adesanya

StanceSwitch
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights19