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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Kelvin Gastelum won · U-DEC

Elo1492

Elo1405

Kelvin GastelumvsIan HeinischUFC Prediction Result

UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns · Saturday, February 13, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Kelvin Gastelum won

U-DEC

Style matchupKelvin Gastelum: Well-roundedvsIan Heinisch: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Ian Heinisch wins(57.3%)

Actual result: Kelvin Gastelum wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ian Heinisch at +174 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Kelvin Gastelum (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Kelvin Gastelum

Red Corner

Ian Heinisch

Blue Corner

-205

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+174

(36%)

1492

Elo

1405

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kelvin Gastelum

oldest →

SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24

vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25

vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Apr 26

latest

Ian Heinisch

oldest →

vs Antonio Carlos Junior · May 19

vs Derek Brunson · Aug 19

vs Omari Akhmedov · Dec 19

KOvs Gerald Meerschaert · Jun 20

KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Jul 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kelvin GastelumMetricIan Heinisch

3.65

Strikes / min

3.25

3.52

Strikes absorbed / min

2.98

57%

Strike defense

59%

1.04

TDs / 15 min

1.02

60%

Takedown defense

59%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.13evenly matched on net striking+0.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kelvin GastelumIan Heinisch

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)Ian Heinisch(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +86.9|Blue -86.9

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kelvin GastelumTargetIan Heinisch

By target zone

32% acc · 53%

Head

24% acc · 37%

77% acc · 26%

Body

55% acc · 22%

89% acc · 21%

Leg

79% acc · 41%

By position

41% acc · 74%

Distance

41% acc · 96%

73% acc · 21%

Clinch

50% acc · 5%

Ground

33% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kelvin Gastelum rounds

even

Ian Heinisch rounds

Round 1Kelvin Gastelum edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns3

Control3:25

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Kelvin Gastelum edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control2:03

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Kelvin Gastelum edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns2

Control1:22

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:08Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 84

Sig Strikes

27 / 67

45.3%

Sig Str %

40%

51 / 115

Total Strikes

56 / 107

6 / 14

TDs

1 / 6

41.7%

TD %

11%

Sub Att

Rev

6:50

Ctrl Time

1:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ian Heinisch	6 / 15	10 / 21	0 / 2	2
1	Kelvin Gastelum	6 / 13	13 / 25	3 / 5	0
2	Ian Heinisch	12 / 31	23 / 42	0 / 1	0
2	Kelvin Gastelum	16 / 34	21 / 48	1 / 4	0
3	Ian Heinisch	9 / 21	23 / 44	1 / 3	0
3	Kelvin Gastelum	16 / 37	17 / 42	2 / 5	0

Kelvin Gastelum

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24

Ian Heinisch

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights7