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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Kelvin Gastelum won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1486

Kelvin GastelumvsDustin StoltzfusUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Saturday, September 13, 2025San Antonio, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Kelvin Gastelum won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKelvin Gastelum: Well-roundedvsDustin Stoltzfus: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Kelvin Gastelum wins(69.0%)

Actual result: Kelvin Gastelum wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kelvin Gastelum at -235 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kelvin Gastelum has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Kelvin Gastelum (53.5%).
Dustin Stoltzfus has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Kelvin Gastelum

Red Corner

Dustin Stoltzfus

Blue Corner

-235

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+194

(34%)

1492

Elo

1486

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kelvin GastelumL2 streak

oldest →

vs Chris Curtis · Apr 23

SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24

vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Apr 26

latest

Dustin Stoltzfus

oldest →

KOvs Abus Magomedov · Sep 22

SUBvs Punahele Soriano · Dec 23

KOvs Brunno Ferreira · Jun 24

KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · Nov 24

vs Nursulton Ruziboev · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kelvin GastelumMetricDustin Stoltzfus

3.65

Strikes / min

3.30

3.52

Strikes absorbed / min

3.23

57%

Strike defense

47%

1.04

TDs / 15 min

2.08

60%

Takedown defense

46%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.13evenly matched on net striking+0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kelvin GastelumDustin Stoltzfus

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)Dustin Stoltzfus(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.9|Blue -5.9

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kelvin GastelumTargetDustin Stoltzfus

By target zone

37% acc · 53%

Head

27% acc · 39%

67% acc · 28%

Body

74% acc · 39%

92% acc · 19%

Leg

74% acc · 22%

By position

48% acc · 98%

Distance

41% acc · 86%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

80% acc · 6%

Ground

71% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kelvin Gastelum rounds

even

Dustin Stoltzfus rounds

Round 1Dustin Stoltzfus edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:03

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:47Control

Round 2Kelvin Gastelum edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns1

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:13Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:14

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

57 / 117

Sig Strikes

64 / 146

49.7%

Sig Str %

43.3%

58 / 118

Total Strikes

69 / 151

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 6

—

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:23

Ctrl Time

2:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dustin Stoltzfus	24 / 49	25 / 50	1 / 1
1	Kelvin Gastelum	14 / 25	15 / 26	0 / 0
2	Dustin Stoltzfus	20 / 45	24 / 49	0 / 3
2	Kelvin Gastelum	23 / 43	23 / 43	0 / 0
3	Dustin Stoltzfus	20 / 52	20 / 52	0 / 2
3	Kelvin Gastelum	20 / 49	20 / 49	0 / 0

Kelvin Gastelum

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24

Dustin Stoltzfus

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10