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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Darren Till won · S-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1443

Kelvin GastelumvsDarren TillUFC Prediction Result

UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · Saturday, November 2, 2019New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Darren Till won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Darren Till wins(50.9%)

Actual result: Darren Till wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Darren Till at +170 American odds

+$170 profit

$270 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Darren Till enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Kelvin Gastelum

Red Corner

Darren Till

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1492

Elo

1443

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kelvin Gastelum

oldest →

SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24

vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25

vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Apr 26

latest

Darren TillL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Tyron Woodley · Sep 18

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 19

vs Robert Whittaker · Jul 20

SUBvs Derek Brunson · Sep 21

SUBvs Dricus Du Plessis · Dec 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kelvin GastelumMetricDarren Till

3.65

Strikes / min

2.30

3.52

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

57%

Strike defense

56%

1.04

TDs / 15 min

0.55

60%

Takedown defense

69%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.13Δ 1.14 — meaningful gap-1.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kelvin GastelumDarren Till

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)Darren Till(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +48.1|Blue -48.1

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kelvin GastelumTargetDarren Till

By target zone

20% acc · 20%

Head

40% acc · 53%

79% acc · 28%

Body

100% acc · 6%

81% acc · 53%

Leg

88% acc · 42%

By position

41% acc · 65%

Distance

56% acc · 94%

78% acc · 35%

Clinch

33% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kelvin Gastelum rounds

even

Darren Till rounds

Round 1Kelvin Gastelum edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control1:35

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

Round 2Kelvin Gastelum edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:41

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control0:27

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 81

Sig Strikes

36 / 67

49.3%

Sig Str %

51.7%

50 / 96

Total Strikes

37 / 69

1 / 4

TDs

1 / 2

16.5%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:43

Ctrl Time

0:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Darren Till	7 / 16	7 / 17	0 / 0
1	Kelvin Gastelum	11 / 23	15 / 31	0 / 0
2	Darren Till	12 / 23	13 / 24	0 / 0
2	Kelvin Gastelum	14 / 25	18 / 30	0 / 1
3	Darren Till	17 / 28	17 / 28	1 / 2
3	Kelvin Gastelum	15 / 33	17 / 35	1 / 3

Kelvin Gastelum

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24

Darren Till

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights11