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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Kelvin Gastelum won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1520

Kelvin GastelumvsDaniel RodriguezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · Saturday, June 22, 2024Riyadh, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Official fight result

Kelvin Gastelum won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKelvin Gastelum: Well-roundedvsDaniel Rodriguez: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Daniel Rodriguez wins(62.9%)

Actual result: Kelvin Gastelum wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Rodriguez at +170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Kelvin Gastelum

Red Corner

Daniel Rodriguez

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1492

Elo

1520

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

6'1"

180.34 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kelvin Gastelum

oldest →

vs Chris Curtis · Apr 23

SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23

vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25

vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Apr 26

latest

Daniel RodriguezW3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Neil Magny · Nov 22

KOvs Ian Machado Garry · May 23

vs Alex Morono · Oct 24

KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · May 25

vs Kevin Holland · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kelvin GastelumMetricDaniel Rodriguez

3.65

Strikes / min

7.20

3.52

Strikes absorbed / min

5.40

57%

Strike defense

57%

1.04

TDs / 15 min

0.51

60%

Takedown defense

64%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.13Δ 1.67 — meaningful gap+1.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kelvin GastelumDaniel Rodriguez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)Daniel Rodriguez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -28.8|Blue +28.8

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -203.0|Blue +203.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kelvin GastelumTargetDaniel Rodriguez

By target zone

40% acc · 69%

Head

38% acc · 65%

70% acc · 13%

Body

88% acc · 28%

84% acc · 19%

Leg

90% acc · 7%

By position

105

46% acc · 94%

Distance

127

48% acc · 100%

Clinch

58% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kelvin Gastelum rounds

even

Daniel Rodriguez rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes44

Takedowns0

Control0:05

46Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Daniel Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns2

Control0:25

53Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Kelvin Gastelum edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns2

Control2:17

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

112 / 238

Sig Strikes

127 / 265

47.3%

Sig Str %

47%

123 / 250

Total Strikes

132 / 273

4 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:47

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Daniel Rodriguez	46 / 91	46 / 92	0 / 0
1	Kelvin Gastelum	44 / 93	45 / 94	0 / 0
2	Daniel Rodriguez	53 / 113	53 / 113	0 / 0
2	Kelvin Gastelum	37 / 86	39 / 88	2 / 2
3	Daniel Rodriguez	28 / 61	33 / 68	0 / 0
3	Kelvin Gastelum	31 / 59	39 / 68	2 / 2

Kelvin Gastelum

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24

Daniel Rodriguez

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14