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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Kelvin Gastelum won · SUB R1

Elo1492

Elo1490

Kelvin GastelumvsBrian MelanconUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann 2 · Wednesday, August 28, 2013Indianapolis, Indiana, USA

Official fight result

Kelvin Gastelum won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:26

Style matchupKelvin Gastelum: Well-roundedvsBrian Melancon: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Kelvin Gastelum wins(67.5%)

Actual result: Kelvin Gastelum wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kelvin Gastelum at -310 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Kelvin Gastelum (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Kelvin Gastelum

Red Corner

Brian Melancon

Blue Corner

-310

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+280

(26%)

1492

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kelvin Gastelum

oldest →

SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24

vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25

vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Apr 26

latest

Brian Melancon

oldest →

KOvs Seth Baczynski · Jul 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kelvin GastelumMetricBrian Melancon

3.65

Strikes / min

4.18

3.52

Strikes absorbed / min

3.64

57%

Strike defense

64%

1.04

TDs / 15 min

2.02

60%

Takedown defense

66%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.13evenly matched on net striking+0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kelvin GastelumBrian Melancon

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)Brian Melancon(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kelvin GastelumTargetBrian Melancon

By target zone

56% acc · 71%

Head

29% acc · 71%

100% acc · 21%

Body

100% acc · 29%

50% acc · 7%

Leg

0% acc

By position

56% acc · 71%

Distance

30% acc · 86%

75% acc · 21%

Clinch

100% acc · 14%

100% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kelvin Gastelum rounds

even

Brian Melancon rounds

Round 1Kelvin Gastelum edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control0:31

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 23

Sig Strikes

7 / 21

60%

Sig Str %

33%

14 / 24

Total Strikes

9 / 23

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:31

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brian Melancon	7 / 21	9 / 23	0 / 0	0
1	Kelvin Gastelum	14 / 23	14 / 24	1 / 2	1

Kelvin Gastelum

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24

Brian Melancon

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach—

Fights2