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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Ivan Jorge won · U-DEC R3

Elo1352

Elo1490

Keith WisniewskivsIvan JorgeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Bader · Wednesday, September 4, 2013Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil

Official fight result

Ivan Jorge won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Keith Wisniewski wins(59.1%)

Actual result: Ivan Jorge wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Keith Wisniewski at +255 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ivan Jorge has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Keith Wisniewski

Red Corner

Ivan Jorge

Blue Corner

+255

(28%)

Vegas Odds

-280

(74%)

1352

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'9"

190.5 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Keith WisniewskiL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Josh Neer · Oct 11

vs Chris Clements · Apr 12

latest

Ivan Jorge

oldest →

vs Rodrigo Damm · Feb 14

vs Josh Shockley · Feb 15

SUBvs Joe Duffy · Jul 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Keith WisniewskiMetricIvan Jorge

2.32

Strikes / min

3.41

4.86

Strikes absorbed / min

2.91

42%

Strike defense

59%

1.57

TDs / 15 min

1.56

78%

Takedown defense

75%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.54Δ 3.04 — meaningful gap+0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Keith WisniewskiIvan Jorge

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Keith Wisniewski(3 fights)Ivan Jorge(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -138.0|Blue +138.0

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -48.6|Blue +48.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Keith WisniewskiTargetIvan Jorge

By target zone

41% acc · 57%

Head

42% acc · 12%

89% acc · 40%

Body

80% acc · 57%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

85% acc · 32%

By position

30% acc · 33%

Distance

60% acc · 39%

90% acc · 67%

Clinch

86% acc · 61%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Keith Wisniewski rounds

even

Ivan Jorge rounds

Round 1Ivan Jorge edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:10Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:31

5Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:22Control

Round 3Ivan Jorge edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:08

45Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 78

Sig Strikes

69 / 94

54.7%

Sig Str %

66%

66 / 103

Total Strikes

87 / 116

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 10

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:39

Ctrl Time

7:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ivan Jorge	19 / 32	21 / 35	0 / 5
1	Keith Wisniewski	14 / 31	19 / 36	0 / 1
2	Ivan Jorge	5 / 9	7 / 13	2 / 4
2	Keith Wisniewski	15 / 23	33 / 42	0 / 0
3	Ivan Jorge	45 / 53	59 / 68	0 / 1
3	Keith Wisniewski	13 / 24	14 / 25	0 / 0

Keith Wisniewski

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach—

Fights3

Ivan Jorge

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4