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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Matt Hamill won · M-DEC R3

Elo1490

Keith JardinevsMatt HamillUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Liddell vs Team Ortiz Finale · Saturday, June 19, 2010Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Matt Hamill won

M-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKeith Jardine: Well-roundedvsMatt Hamill: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Keith Jardine wins(61.1%)

Actual result: Matt Hamill wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Keith Jardine at +140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Hamill has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Keith Jardine

Red Corner

Matt Hamill

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'1"

193.04 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Keith JardineNo prior UFC fights on record.

Matt Hamill

oldest →

vs Tito Ortiz · Oct 10

DECvs Rampage Jackson · May 11

KOvs Alexander Gustafsson · Aug 11

vs Roger Hollett · Sep 12

vs Thiago Silva · Oct 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Keith JardineMetricMatt Hamill

3.25

Strikes / min

3.69

2.98

Strikes absorbed / min

3.80

59%

Strike defense

61%

1.18

TDs / 15 min

3.00

62%

Takedown defense

91%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.27evenly matched on net striking-0.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Keith JardineMatt Hamill

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Keith Jardine(1 fights)Matt Hamill(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Keith JardineTargetMatt Hamill

By target zone

23% acc · 69%

Head

36% acc · 87%

57% acc · 6%

Body

50% acc · 1%

80% acc · 25%

Leg

75% acc · 12%

By position

28% acc · 95%

Distance

36% acc · 83%

50% acc · 5%

Clinch

65% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Keith Jardine rounds

even

Matt Hamill rounds

Round 1Keith Jardine edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 2Matt Hamill edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

38Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:38Control

Round 3Matt Hamill edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:47Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

65 / 227

Sig Strikes

77 / 199

28%

Sig Str %

38%

66 / 228

Total Strikes

90 / 214

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 9

—

TD %

17.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Matt Hamill	20 / 50	20 / 50	0 / 1
1	Keith Jardine	23 / 78	23 / 78	0 / 0
2	Matt Hamill	38 / 94	48 / 105	1 / 3
2	Keith Jardine	22 / 80	23 / 81	0 / 0
3	Matt Hamill	19 / 55	22 / 59	1 / 5
3	Keith Jardine	20 / 69	20 / 69	0 / 0

Keith Jardine

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights1

Matt Hamill

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights6