Middleweight

3 Rounds

Ryan Janes won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Keith BerishvsRyan JanesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdurakhimov · Friday, December 9, 2016Albany, New York, USA

Official fight result

Ryan Janes won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Ryan Janes wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Ryan Janes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ryan Janes at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ryan Janes has 58pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Keith Berish

Red Corner

Ryan Janes

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1491

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'3"

185.42 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Keith BerishNo prior UFC fights on record.

Ryan Janes

oldest →

SUBvs Gerald Meerschaert · Feb 17

vs Jack Marshman · Jul 17

KOvs Andrew Sanchez · Dec 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Keith BerishMetricRyan Janes

3.58

Strikes / min

7.69

4.81

Strikes absorbed / min

5.53

62%

Strike defense

59%

1.76

TDs / 15 min

0.35

Takedown defense

58%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.23Δ 3.39 — meaningful gap+2.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Keith BerishRyan Janes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Keith Berish(1 fights)Ryan Janes(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Keith BerishTargetRyan Janes

By target zone

29% acc · 64%

Head

31% acc · 67%

46% acc · 10%

Body

71% acc · 18%

84% acc · 26%

Leg

92% acc · 15%

By position

36% acc · 93%

Distance

37% acc · 91%

60% acc · 5%

Clinch

63% acc · 6%

33% acc · 2%

Ground

50% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Keith Berish rounds

even

Ryan Janes rounds

Round 1Ryan Janes edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Ryan Janes edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Ryan Janes edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control0:52

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:59Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

61 / 168

Sig Strikes

82 / 214

35.7%

Sig Str %

39.3%

68 / 175

Total Strikes

99 / 237

2 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

22%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:52

Ctrl Time

2:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ryan Janes	35 / 94	35 / 94	0 / 0
1	Keith Berish	31 / 77	31 / 77	0 / 1
2	Ryan Janes	27 / 78	27 / 78	0 / 0
2	Keith Berish	21 / 66	21 / 66	0 / 1
3	Ryan Janes	20 / 42	37 / 65	0 / 0
3	Keith Berish	9 / 25	16 / 32	2 / 3

Keith Berish

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach—

Fights1

Ryan Janes

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights4