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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Keita Nakamura won · Submission R3

Elo1492

Elo1495

Keita NakamuravsLi JingliangUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · Saturday, September 26, 2015Saitama, Japan

Official fight result

Keita Nakamura won

Submission · Round 3 · 2:17

Model Prediction: Li Jingliang wins(65.1%)

Actual result: Keita Nakamura wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Li Jingliang at -310 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Keita Nakamura (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Keita Nakamura

Red Corner

Li Jingliang

Blue Corner

+255

(28%)

Vegas Odds

-310

(76%)

1492

Elo

1495

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Keita Nakamura

oldest →

vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Oct 16

vs Alex Morono · Sep 17

vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Apr 18

vs Salim Touahri · Dec 18

vs Sultan Aliev · Apr 19

latest

Li JingliangL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jan 21

SUBvs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 21

KOvs Muslim Salikhov · Jul 22

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Sep 22

KOvs Carlos Prates · Aug 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Keita NakamuraMetricLi Jingliang

2.23

Strikes / min

4.46

3.20

Strikes absorbed / min

3.95

58%

Strike defense

56%

1.65

TDs / 15 min

1.19

63%

Takedown defense

60%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.97Δ 1.48 — meaningful gap+0.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Keita NakamuraLi Jingliang

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Keita Nakamura(8 fights)Li Jingliang(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.3|Blue +3.3

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +47.6|Blue -47.6

Grappler Score

Red +49.8|Blue -49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Keita NakamuraTargetLi Jingliang

By target zone

44% acc · 90%

Head

52% acc · 77%

50% acc · 5%

Body

65% acc · 14%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

88% acc · 9%

By position

39% acc · 73%

Distance

54% acc · 85%

75% acc · 8%

Clinch

0% acc

89% acc · 20%

Ground

75% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Keita Nakamura rounds

even

Li Jingliang rounds

Round 1Keita Nakamura edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control4:10

Knockdowns1

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Li Jingliang edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

55Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:48Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Li Jingliang edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:10

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:47Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 87

Sig Strikes

79 / 142

49.7%

Sig Str %

54.7%

85 / 138

Total Strikes

88 / 151

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

4:20

Ctrl Time

1:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Li Jingliang	10 / 17	10 / 17	0 / 0	0
1	Keita Nakamura	14 / 19	59 / 70	0 / 0	0
2	Li Jingliang	55 / 97	59 / 101	0 / 0	0
2	Keita Nakamura	19 / 50	19 / 50	0 / 0	0
3	Li Jingliang	14 / 28	19 / 33	1 / 1	0
3	Keita Nakamura	7 / 18	7 / 18	0 / 2	1

Keita Nakamura

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8

Li Jingliang

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights17