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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1488

Keita NakamuravsElizeu Zaleski dos SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · Saturday, October 1, 2016Portland, Oregon, USA

Official fight result

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos wins(54.1%)

Actual result: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos at +105 American odds

+$105 profit

$205 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Keita Nakamura (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Keita Nakamura

Red Corner

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1492

Elo

1488

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Keita Nakamura

oldest →

SUBvs Kyle Noke · Jul 16

vs Alex Morono · Sep 17

vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Apr 18

vs Salim Touahri · Dec 18

vs Sultan Aliev · Apr 19

latest

Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosL2 streak

oldest →

vs Abubakar Nurmagomedov · Jun 23

vs Randy Brown · Jun 24

KOvs Zachary Scroggin · Nov 24

KOvs Chidi Njokuani · Mar 25

KOvs Neil Magny · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Keita NakamuraMetricElizeu Zaleski dos Santos

2.23

Strikes / min

4.16

3.20

Strikes absorbed / min

3.56

58%

Strike defense

55%

1.65

TDs / 15 min

0.79

63%

Takedown defense

67%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.97Δ 1.57 — meaningful gap+0.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Keita NakamuraElizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Keita Nakamura(8 fights)Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.1|Blue -3.1

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -88.0|Blue +88.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Keita NakamuraTargetElizeu Zaleski dos Santos

By target zone

40% acc · 88%

Head

23% acc · 71%

60% acc · 13%

Body

60% acc · 18%

Leg

80% acc · 12%

By position

35% acc · 67%

Distance

25% acc · 74%

60% acc · 13%

Clinch

42% acc · 15%

71% acc · 21%

Ground

57% acc · 12%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Keita Nakamura rounds

even

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos rounds

Round 1Keita Nakamura edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control4:28

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control1:48

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns2

Control1:25

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:16Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 58

Sig Strikes

34 / 120

42%

Sig Str %

29.7%

64 / 113

Total Strikes

45 / 131

5 / 6

TDs

1 / 1

88.7%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

7:41

Ctrl Time

1:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos	8 / 22	13 / 27	0 / 0	0
1	Keita Nakamura	7 / 14	39 / 57	2 / 2	0
2	Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos	17 / 65	17 / 65	0 / 0	0
2	Keita Nakamura	11 / 28	14 / 35	1 / 1	0
3	Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos	9 / 33	15 / 39	1 / 1	2
3	Keita Nakamura	6 / 16	11 / 21	2 / 3	0

Keita Nakamura

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights15