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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Keita Nakamura won · S-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1478

Keita NakamuravsAlex MoronoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs. Okami · Friday, September 22, 2017Saitama, Saitama, Japan

Official fight result

Keita Nakamura won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Alex Morono wins(60.0%)

Actual result: Keita Nakamura wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Morono at -110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Morono enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Keita Nakamura has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Keita Nakamura (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Keita Nakamura

Red Corner

Alex Morono

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1492

Elo

1478

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Keita Nakamura

oldest →

SUBvs Kyle Noke · Jul 16

vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Oct 16

vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Apr 18

vs Salim Touahri · Dec 18

vs Sultan Aliev · Apr 19

latest

Alex MoronoL4 streak

oldest →

vs Court McGee · Apr 24

vs Niko Price · Jun 24

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Oct 24

KOvs Carlos Leal · Mar 25

vs Daniil Donchenko · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Keita NakamuraMetricAlex Morono

2.23

Strikes / min

4.90

3.20

Strikes absorbed / min

4.88

58%

Strike defense

55%

1.65

TDs / 15 min

0.32

63%

Takedown defense

47%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.97evenly matched on net striking+0.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Keita NakamuraAlex Morono

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Keita Nakamura(8 fights)Alex Morono(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Keita NakamuraTargetAlex Morono

By target zone

18% acc · 41%

Head

28% acc · 84%

64% acc · 52%

Body

50% acc · 8%

50% acc · 7%

Leg

75% acc · 8%

By position

32% acc · 100%

Distance

30% acc · 97%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Keita Nakamura rounds

even

Alex Morono rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alex Morono edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Keita Nakamura edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control0:45

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 86

Sig Strikes

38 / 123

33%

Sig Str %

30.3%

29 / 88

Total Strikes

39 / 124

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:45

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alex Morono	8 / 40	8 / 40	0 / 0
1	Keita Nakamura	7 / 17	7 / 17	0 / 0
2	Alex Morono	15 / 40	15 / 40	0 / 0
2	Keita Nakamura	10 / 32	10 / 32	0 / 0
3	Alex Morono	15 / 43	16 / 44	0 / 0
3	Keita Nakamura	10 / 37	12 / 39	2 / 2

Keita Nakamura

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8

Alex Morono

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights23