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Featherweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Keiichiro Nakamura won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1521

Elo1479

Keiichiro NakamuravsSebastian SzalayUFC Prediction Result

UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · Saturday, January 31, 2026Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Keiichiro Nakamura won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:48

Style matchupKeiichiro Nakamura: Pressure fightervsSebastian Szalay: Elusive striker

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Sebastian Szalay wins(51.9%)

Actual result: Keiichiro Nakamura wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sebastian Szalay at -120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Keiichiro Nakamura (53.5%).
Keiichiro Nakamura has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Keiichiro Nakamura

Red Corner

Sebastian Szalay

Blue Corner

+102

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-120

(55%)

1521

Elo

1479

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Keiichiro NakamuraMetricSebastian Szalay

4.48

Strikes / min

4.94

4.28

Strikes absorbed / min

2.20

63%

Strike defense

65%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.51

78%

Takedown defense

84%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.20Δ 2.54 — meaningful gap+2.74

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Keiichiro NakamuraSebastian Szalay

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +41.4|Blue -41.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Keiichiro NakamuraTargetSebastian Szalay

By target zone

24% acc · 47%

Head

31% acc · 59%

61% acc · 24%

Body

52% acc · 30%

87% acc · 29%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

37% acc · 91%

Distance

39% acc · 99%

33% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 1%

75% acc · 7%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Keiichiro Nakamura rounds

even

Sebastian Szalay rounds

Round 1Sebastian Szalay edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Sebastian Szalay edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Sebastian Szalay edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns1

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 119

Sig Strikes

79 / 204

37%

Sig Str %

38.7%

46 / 120

Total Strikes

80 / 205

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sebastian Szalay	23 / 63	23 / 63	0 / 0
1	Keiichiro Nakamura	13 / 33	13 / 33	0 / 0
2	Sebastian Szalay	24 / 78	24 / 78	1 / 1
2	Keiichiro Nakamura	11 / 39	11 / 39	0 / 0
3	Sebastian Szalay	32 / 63	33 / 64	0 / 0
3	Keiichiro Nakamura	21 / 47	22 / 48	0 / 0

Keiichiro Nakamura

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights1

Sebastian Szalay

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights1