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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Kazula Vargas won · U-DEC
Elo1494
Elo1510
Rong Zhu

Kazula VargasvsRong ZhuUFC Prediction Result

UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · Saturday, April 24, 2021Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Kazula Vargas won

U-DEC

Model Prediction: Rong Zhu wins(69.6%)

Actual result: Kazula Vargas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rong Zhu at -210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Kazula Vargas enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Kazula Vargas (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Kazula Vargas
Red Corner
VS
Rong Zhu
Blue Corner
+175
(36%)
Vegas Odds
-210
(68%)
1494
Elo
1510
40
Age
21
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'9"
180.34 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kazula VargasL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Alex Da Silva · Aug 19
L
vs Brok Weaver · Feb 20
L
SUBvs Paddy Pimblett · Mar 22
latest
Rong Zhu
oldest →
W
KOvs Brandon Jenkins · Sep 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kazula VargasMetricRong Zhu
3.65
Strikes / min
—
1.77
Strikes absorbed / min
—
57%
Strike defense
—
0.40
TDs / 15 min
—
30%
Takedown defense
—
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1463 vs 1500Strikes3.9 vs 2.8Takedowns0.4 vs 3.0Sub Atts0.40 vs 0.00Form-1.0 vs 0.0
Kazula VargasRong Zhu

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Kazula Vargas(4 fights)Rong Zhu(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -16.3|Blue +16.3
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Kazula Vargas

StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights4

Rong Zhu

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights1