Lightweight

3 Rounds

Alex Da Silva won · U-DEC R3

Elo1494

Elo1426

Kazula VargasvsAlex Da SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · Saturday, August 10, 2019Montevideo, Uruguay

Official fight result

Alex Da Silva won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Kazula Vargas wins(59.3%)

Actual result: Alex Da Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kazula Vargas at +240 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alex Da Silva enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Alex Da Silva has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Kazula Vargas (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Kazula Vargas

Red Corner

Alex Da Silva

Blue Corner

+240

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-280

(74%)

1494

Elo

1426

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kazula Vargas

oldest →

vs Brok Weaver · Feb 20

vs Rong Zhu · Apr 21

SUBvs Paddy Pimblett · Mar 22

latest

Alex Da SilvaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Alexander Yakovlev · Apr 19

vs Brad Riddell · Sep 20

vs Joe Solecki · Jun 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kazula VargasMetricAlex Da Silva

3.65

Strikes / min

2.14

1.77

Strikes absorbed / min

2.52

57%

Strike defense

56%

0.40

TDs / 15 min

1.97

30%

Takedown defense

76%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.88Δ 2.26 — meaningful gap-0.38

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kazula VargasAlex Da Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kazula Vargas(4 fights)Alex Da Silva(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +67.7|Blue -67.7

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kazula VargasTargetAlex Da Silva

By target zone

43% acc · 80%

Head

40% acc · 82%

67% acc · 10%

Body

50% acc · 6%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 12%

By position

38% acc · 65%

Distance

25% acc · 41%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

88% acc · 35%

Ground

90% acc · 53%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kazula Vargas rounds

even

Alex Da Silva rounds

Round 1Alex Da Silva edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:18

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:31Control

Round 2Alex Da Silva edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:14Control

Round 3Alex Da Silva edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:16Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 42

Sig Strikes

17 / 39

49%

Sig Str %

44.3%

59 / 92

Total Strikes

88 / 130

0 / 1

TDs

3 / 4

TD %

83.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:18

Ctrl Time

12:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alex Da Silva	3 / 6	16 / 25	1 / 1
1	Kazula Vargas	8 / 12	21 / 32	0 / 0
2	Alex Da Silva	9 / 17	41 / 57	1 / 1
2	Kazula Vargas	6 / 13	27 / 38	0 / 1
3	Alex Da Silva	5 / 16	31 / 48	1 / 2
3	Kazula Vargas	6 / 17	11 / 22	0 / 0

Kazula Vargas

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4

Alex Da Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4