← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Johnny Case won · SUB R2

Elo1354

Elo1361

Kazuki TokudomevsJohnny CaseUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson · Saturday, September 20, 2014Saitama, Japan

Official fight result

Johnny Case won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:34

Style matchupKazuki Tokudome: WrestlervsJohnny Case: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Kazuki Tokudome wins(63.4%)

Actual result: Johnny Case wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kazuki Tokudome at -130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Kazuki Tokudome (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Kazuki Tokudome

Red Corner

Johnny Case

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1354

Elo

1361

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Kazuki TokudomeL2 streak

oldest →

vs Cristiano Marcello · Mar 13

vs Norman Parke · Jul 13

vs Yui Chul Nam · Mar 14

latest

Johnny CaseL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Frankie Perez · Jan 15

vs Francisco Trevino · Jun 15

vs Yan Cabral · Nov 15

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Mar 16

vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Jun 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Kazuki TokudomeMetricJohnny Case

2.26

Strikes / min

3.95

3.63

Strikes absorbed / min

2.66

53%

Strike defense

61%

2.00

TDs / 15 min

1.70

78%

Takedown defense

72%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.37Δ 2.66 — meaningful gap+1.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Kazuki TokudomeJohnny Case

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Kazuki Tokudome(4 fights)Johnny Case(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -7.1|Blue +7.1

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -48.4|Blue +48.4

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Kazuki TokudomeTargetJohnny Case

By target zone

37% acc · 83%

Head

16% acc · 85%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 17%

Leg

50% acc · 15%

By position

35% acc · 75%

Distance

16% acc · 85%

100% acc · 17%

Clinch

33% acc · 8%

100% acc · 8%

Ground

100% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Kazuki Tokudome rounds

even

Johnny Case rounds

Round 1Kazuki Tokudome edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control2:58

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Johnny Case edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 29

Sig Strikes

13 / 73

41.5%

Sig Str %

15%

13 / 30

Total Strikes

20 / 80

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 1

16.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:58

Ctrl Time

0:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Johnny Case	2 / 25	9 / 32	0 / 1	0
1	Kazuki Tokudome	5 / 11	6 / 12	1 / 3	0
2	Johnny Case	11 / 48	11 / 48	0 / 0	1
2	Kazuki Tokudome	7 / 18	7 / 18	0 / 1	0

Kazuki Tokudome

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4

Johnny Case

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6