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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Katsunori Kikuno won · SUB R2

Elo1355

Elo1359

Katsunori KikunovsSam SiciliaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson · Saturday, September 20, 2014Saitama, Japan

Official fight result

Katsunori Kikuno won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:38

Model Prediction: Sam Sicilia wins(56.1%)

Actual result: Katsunori Kikuno wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sam Sicilia at +135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Katsunori Kikuno enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Sam Sicilia enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Sam Sicilia is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Katsunori Kikuno has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Katsunori Kikuno threatens submissions; Sam Sicilia has lost 43% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Katsunori Kikuno

Red Corner

Sam Sicilia

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1355

Elo

1359

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

167.64 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Katsunori KikunoL3 streak

oldest →

vs Quinn Mulhern · Jan 14

KOvs Tony Ferguson · May 14

KOvs Kevin Souza · Mar 15

KOvs Diego Brandao · Sep 15

latest

Sam SiciliaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Akira Corassani · Jan 15

vs Yaotzin Meza · Jul 15

KOvs Dooho Choi · Nov 15

SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Sep 16

vs Gavin Tucker · Feb 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Katsunori KikunoMetricSam Sicilia

2.64

Strikes / min

2.46

2.47

Strikes absorbed / min

3.55

61%

Strike defense

59%

1.88

TDs / 15 min

1.45

76%

Takedown defense

70%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.17Δ 1.26 — meaningful gap-1.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Katsunori KikunoSam Sicilia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Katsunori Kikuno(5 fights)Sam Sicilia(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -4.0|Blue +4.0

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Katsunori KikunoTargetSam Sicilia

By target zone

33% acc · 63%

Head

28% acc · 50%

38% acc · 9%

Body

58% acc · 19%

90% acc · 28%

Leg

73% acc · 31%

By position

41% acc · 94%

Distance

34% acc · 75%

50% acc · 6%

Clinch

75% acc · 25%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Katsunori Kikuno rounds

even

Sam Sicilia rounds

Round 1Sam Sicilia edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:01

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Katsunori Kikuno edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control0:47

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 78

Sig Strikes

36 / 91

42.5%

Sig Str %

39.5%

33 / 79

Total Strikes

37 / 92

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:48

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sam Sicilia	32 / 81	33 / 82	0 / 0	0
1	Katsunori Kikuno	27 / 67	28 / 68	0 / 0	0
2	Sam Sicilia	4 / 10	4 / 10	0 / 0	0
2	Katsunori Kikuno	5 / 11	5 / 11	1 / 1	1

Katsunori Kikuno

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights5

Sam Sicilia

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights12