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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Diego Brandao won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1355
Elo1490
Diego Brandao

Katsunori KikunovsDiego BrandaoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · Saturday, September 26, 2015Saitama, Japan

Official fight result

Diego Brandao won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:28

Style matchupKatsunori Kikuno: Well-roundedvsDiego Brandao: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Diego Brandao wins(64.8%)

Actual result: Diego Brandao wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Diego Brandao at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Katsunori Kikuno
Red Corner
VS
Diego Brandao
Blue Corner
+210
(32%)
Vegas Odds
-230
(70%)
1355
Elo
1490
44
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'7"
167.64 cm
Reach
162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Katsunori Kikuno
oldest →
W
vs Quinn Mulhern · Jan 14
L
KOvs Tony Ferguson · May 14
W
SUBvs Sam Sicilia · Sep 14
L
KOvs Kevin Souza · Mar 15
latest
Diego Brandao
oldest →
W
vs Daniel Pineda · Aug 13
L
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Dec 13
L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 14
W
KOvs Jimy Hettes · Apr 15
L
SUBvs Brian Ortega · Jan 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Katsunori KikunoMetricDiego Brandao
2.64
Strikes / min
2.94
2.47
Strikes absorbed / min
3.38
61%
Strike defense
62%
1.88
TDs / 15 min
3.21
76%
Takedown defense
80%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.17evenly matched on net striking-0.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1502 vs 1531Strikes19.5 vs 20.4Takedowns1.0 vs 1.9Sub Atts0.25 vs 0.38Form-0.2 vs 0.3
Katsunori KikunoDiego Brandao

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Katsunori Kikuno(5 fights)Diego Brandao(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -135.1|Blue +135.1
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +28.0|Blue -28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Katsunori KikunoTargetDiego Brandao

By target zone

0
Head
11
79% acc · 79%
0
Body
3
100% acc · 21%
1
100% acc · 100%
Leg
0

By position

1
100% acc · 100%
Distance
4
80% acc · 29%
0
Clinch
8
89% acc · 57%
0
Ground
2
67% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Katsunori Kikuno rounds
0
even
1
Diego Brandao rounds
Round 1Diego Brandao edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns0
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:08Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
1 / 1
Sig Strikes
14 / 17
100%
Sig Str %
82%
1 / 1
Total Strikes
14 / 19
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:02
Ctrl Time
0:08

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Diego Brandao14 / 1714 / 190 / 00
1Katsunori Kikuno1 / 11 / 10 / 00

Katsunori Kikuno

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights5

Diego Brandao

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights10