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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Maycee Barber won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1514

Katlyn CerminaravsMaycee BarberUFC Prediction Result

UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Saturday, March 9, 2024Miami, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Maycee Barber won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKatlyn Cerminara: Pressure fightervsMaycee Barber: Elusive striker

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Maycee Barber wins(78.7%)

Actual result: Maycee Barber wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Maycee Barber at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Maycee Barber (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Katlyn Cerminara

Red Corner

Maycee Barber

Blue Corner

+154

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-185

(65%)

1495

Elo

1514

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'9"

Height

5'5"

172.72 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Katlyn CerminaraNo prior UFC fights on record.

Maycee Barber

oldest →

vs Jessica Eye · Jul 22

vs Andrea Lee · Mar 23

KOvs Amanda Ribas · Jun 23

vs Karine Silva · Dec 25

KOvs Alexa Grasso · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Katlyn CerminaraMetricMaycee Barber

4.58

Strikes / min

4.56

4.48

Strikes absorbed / min

2.78

62%

Strike defense

55%

0.31

TDs / 15 min

1.56

50%

Takedown defense

51%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10Δ 1.68 — meaningful gap+1.78

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Katlyn CerminaraMaycee Barber

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Katlyn Cerminara(1 fights)Maycee Barber(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -18.5|Blue +18.5

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.1|Blue -49.1

Grappler Score

Red +49.8|Blue -49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Katlyn CerminaraTargetMaycee Barber

By target zone

36% acc · 67%

Head

49% acc · 70%

78% acc · 32%

Body

82% acc · 21%

33% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

35% acc · 65%

Distance

41% acc · 52%

82% acc · 35%

Clinch

92% acc · 43%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Katlyn Cerminara rounds

even

Maycee Barber rounds

Round 1Maycee Barber edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control1:50

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:39Control

Round 2Maycee Barber edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:22

22Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:52Control

Round 3Maycee Barber edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control0:40

31Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:14Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

66 / 152

Sig Strikes

84 / 150

47%

Sig Str %

55.3%

99 / 186

Total Strikes

122 / 189

1 / 6

TDs

4 / 4

50%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:52

Ctrl Time

4:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Maycee Barber	31 / 48	46 / 63	0 / 0
1	Katlyn Cerminara	22 / 32	29 / 40	0 / 5
2	Maycee Barber	22 / 48	35 / 62	2 / 2
2	Katlyn Cerminara	24 / 56	40 / 72	0 / 0
3	Maycee Barber	31 / 54	41 / 64	2 / 2
3	Katlyn Cerminara	20 / 64	30 / 74	1 / 1

Katlyn Cerminara

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights1

Maycee Barber

StanceSwitch

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights13