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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Yan Xiaonan won · Decision R3

Elo1483

Elo1500

Karolina KowalkiewiczvsYan XiaonanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hooker · Saturday, February 22, 2020Auckland, New Zealand

Official fight result

Yan Xiaonan won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKarolina Kowalkiewicz: Pressure fightervsYan Xiaonan: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Yan Xiaonan wins(58.6%)

Actual result: Yan Xiaonan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Yan Xiaonan at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Red Corner

Yan Xiaonan

Blue Corner

+225

(31%)

Vegas Odds

-265

(73%)

1483

Elo

1500

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'5"

162.56 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Karolina KowalkiewiczL3 streak

oldest →

vs Vanessa Demopoulos · May 23

vs Diana Belbita · Oct 23

vs Iasmin Lucindo · May 24

vs Denise Gomes · Nov 24

KOvs Julia Polastri · Oct 25

latest

Yan Xiaonan

oldest →

vs Mackenzie Dern · Oct 22

KOvs Jessica Andrade · May 23

vs Zhang Weili · Apr 24

vs Tabatha Ricci · Nov 24

vs Virna Jandiroba · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Karolina KowalkiewiczMetricYan Xiaonan

5.54

Strikes / min

4.69

5.77

Strikes absorbed / min

3.23

56%

Strike defense

60%

0.36

TDs / 15 min

0.84

74%

Takedown defense

64%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.23Δ 1.69 — meaningful gap+1.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Karolina KowalkiewiczYan Xiaonan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Karolina Kowalkiewicz(10 fights)Yan Xiaonan(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -16.1|Blue +16.1

Recent Form

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Karolina KowalkiewiczTargetYan Xiaonan

By target zone

35% acc · 50%

Head

43% acc · 63%

50% acc · 18%

Body

87% acc · 22%

75% acc · 32%

Leg

82% acc · 15%

By position

44% acc · 92%

Distance

48% acc · 78%

50% acc · 8%

Clinch

70% acc · 8%

Ground

76% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz rounds

even

Yan Xiaonan rounds

Round 1Yan Xiaonan edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:14

36Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:52Control

Round 2Yan Xiaonan edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control1:18

39Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:49Control

Round 3Yan Xiaonan edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:13

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:25Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 85

Sig Strikes

93 / 178

45.7%

Sig Str %

51.7%

51 / 103

Total Strikes

157 / 254

0 / 1

TDs

5 / 6

TD %

88.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:45

Ctrl Time

5:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Yan Xiaonan	36 / 69	41 / 75	2 / 3	0
1	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	19 / 40	24 / 46	0 / 0	0
2	Yan Xiaonan	39 / 74	47 / 83	2 / 2	0
2	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	14 / 35	16 / 37	0 / 1	0
3	Yan Xiaonan	18 / 35	69 / 96	1 / 1	0
3	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	5 / 10	11 / 20	0 / 0	1

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights19

Yan Xiaonan

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights13