← All fights/Event page

Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Karolina Kowalkiewicz won · U-DEC R3

Elo1483

Elo1487

Karolina KowalkiewiczvsVanessa DemopoulosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · Saturday, May 20, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Karolina Kowalkiewicz won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Vanessa Demopoulos wins(52.4%)

Actual result: Karolina Kowalkiewicz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vanessa Demopoulos at +122 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Vanessa Demopoulos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Red Corner

Vanessa Demopoulos

Blue Corner

-144

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+122

(45%)

1483

Elo

1487

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'2"

162.56 cm

Reach

149.86 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Karolina KowalkiewiczL3 streak

oldest →

vs Silvana Gomez Juarez · Nov 22

vs Diana Belbita · Oct 23

vs Iasmin Lucindo · May 24

vs Denise Gomes · Nov 24

KOvs Julia Polastri · Oct 25

latest

Vanessa DemopoulosL3 streak

oldest →

vs Kanako Murata · Oct 23

vs Emily Ducote · May 24

SUBvs Jaqueline Amorim · Sep 24

vs Talita Alencar · Apr 25

vs Jamey-Lyn Horth · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Karolina KowalkiewiczMetricVanessa Demopoulos

5.54

Strikes / min

3.37

5.77

Strikes absorbed / min

5.39

56%

Strike defense

41%

0.36

TDs / 15 min

0.32

74%

Takedown defense

26%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.23Δ 1.79 — meaningful gap-2.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Karolina KowalkiewiczVanessa Demopoulos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Karolina Kowalkiewicz(10 fights)Vanessa Demopoulos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.6|Blue +3.6

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +2.9|Blue -2.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Karolina KowalkiewiczTargetVanessa Demopoulos

By target zone

50% acc · 68%

Head

26% acc · 72%

91% acc · 22%

Body

57% acc · 19%

88% acc · 11%

Leg

75% acc · 9%

By position

134

58% acc · 96%

Distance

30% acc · 96%

71% acc · 4%

Clinch

60% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz rounds

even

Vanessa Demopoulos rounds

Round 1Karolina Kowalkiewicz edged it

Sig. strikes42

Takedowns0

Control0:23

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Karolina Kowalkiewicz edged it

Sig. strikes55

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Karolina Kowalkiewicz edged it

Sig. strikes42

Takedowns0

Control1:29

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

139 / 237

Sig Strikes

68 / 221

58.7%

Sig Str %

30.7%

148 / 249

Total Strikes

83 / 237

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 4

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:52

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Vanessa Demopoulos	28 / 71	36 / 79	0 / 1
1	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	42 / 84	42 / 84	0 / 0
2	Vanessa Demopoulos	22 / 86	22 / 86	0 / 2
2	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	55 / 82	56 / 84	0 / 0
3	Vanessa Demopoulos	18 / 64	25 / 72	0 / 1
3	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	42 / 71	50 / 81	0 / 0

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights19

Vanessa Demopoulos

StanceOrthodox

Height62.0"

Reach59.0"

Fights10