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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Karolina Kowalkiewicz won · U-DEC R3

Elo1483

Elo1495

Karolina KowalkiewiczvsSilvana Gomez JuarezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Saturday, November 12, 2022New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Karolina Kowalkiewicz won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupKarolina Kowalkiewicz: Pressure fightervsSilvana Gomez Juarez: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Karolina Kowalkiewicz wins(60.7%)

Actual result: Karolina Kowalkiewicz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Karolina Kowalkiewicz at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz has 44pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Red Corner

Silvana Gomez Juarez

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1483

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'3"

162.56 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Karolina KowalkiewiczL3 streak

oldest →

vs Vanessa Demopoulos · May 23

vs Diana Belbita · Oct 23

vs Iasmin Lucindo · May 24

vs Denise Gomes · Nov 24

KOvs Julia Polastri · Oct 25

latest

Silvana Gomez Juarez

oldest →

SUBvs Loopy Godinez · Oct 21

SUBvs Vanessa Demopoulos · Jan 22

KOvs Liang Na · Jun 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Karolina KowalkiewiczMetricSilvana Gomez Juarez

5.54

Strikes / min

4.26

5.77

Strikes absorbed / min

4.04

56%

Strike defense

61%

0.36

TDs / 15 min

0.00

74%

Takedown defense

30%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.23evenly matched on net striking+0.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Karolina KowalkiewiczSilvana Gomez Juarez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Karolina Kowalkiewicz(10 fights)Silvana Gomez Juarez(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -11.3|Blue +11.3

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +3.1|Blue -3.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Karolina KowalkiewiczTargetSilvana Gomez Juarez

By target zone

32% acc · 74%

Head

21% acc · 60%

52% acc · 18%

Body

80% acc · 31%

86% acc · 8%

Leg

78% acc · 9%

By position

36% acc · 96%

Distance

29% acc · 97%

75% acc · 4%

Clinch

50% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz rounds

even

Silvana Gomez Juarez rounds

Round 1Karolina Kowalkiewicz edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns2

Control3:45

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Karolina Kowalkiewicz edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:03

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Silvana Gomez Juarez edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:15

44Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

74 / 202

Sig Strikes

77 / 263

35.3%

Sig Str %

26%

90 / 230

Total Strikes

79 / 267

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:03

Ctrl Time

0:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Silvana Gomez Juarez	6 / 31	7 / 32	0 / 0
1	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	5 / 15	20 / 41	2 / 2
2	Silvana Gomez Juarez	27 / 105	27 / 105	0 / 0
2	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	31 / 86	31 / 86	0 / 0
3	Silvana Gomez Juarez	44 / 127	45 / 130	0 / 0
3	Karolina Kowalkiewicz	38 / 101	39 / 103	0 / 0

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights19

Silvana Gomez Juarez

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights4