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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Michelle Waterson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1483

Elo1493

Karolina KowalkiewiczvsMichelle WatersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje · Saturday, March 30, 2019Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Michelle Waterson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Karolina Kowalkiewicz wins(52.8%)

Actual result: Michelle Waterson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Karolina Kowalkiewicz at -160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Red Corner

Michelle Waterson

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1483

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'3"

162.56 cm

Reach

157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Karolina KowalkiewiczL3 streak

oldest →

vs Vanessa Demopoulos · May 23

vs Diana Belbita · Oct 23

vs Iasmin Lucindo · May 24

vs Denise Gomes · Nov 24

KOvs Julia Polastri · Oct 25

latest

Michelle Waterson

oldest →

vs Felice Herrig · Oct 18

vs Joanna Jedrzejczyk · Oct 19

vs Carla Esparza · May 20

vs Angela Hill · Sep 20

vs Marina Rodriguez · May 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Karolina KowalkiewiczMetricMichelle Waterson

5.54

Strikes / min

—

5.77

Strikes absorbed / min

—

56%

Strike defense

—

0.36

TDs / 15 min

—

74%

Takedown defense

—

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Karolina KowalkiewiczMichelle Waterson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Karolina Kowalkiewicz(10 fights)Michelle Waterson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -9.9|Blue +9.9

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights19

Michelle Waterson

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights3